NAM Says ACES Is "Anti-Jobs, Anti-Growth" Legislation

Aug 12: The National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) and the American Council for Capital Formation (ACCF) unveiled a comprehensive study on the impact of The American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009, also known as the Waxman-Markey Bill (HR 2454, or ACES). The legislation calls for a cap and trade program and other provisions governing fuel choices available to businesses and consumers. The bill passed the House of Representatives by a slim margin (219-212) [See WIMS 6/26/09] and the Senate is expected to release its version of climate legislation in September.

The study, which was commissioned by NAM and ACCF and conducted by Science Applications International Corporation (SAIC) using NAM and ACCF input assumptions, assesses the impact of the Waxman-Markey Bill on manufacturing, jobs, energy prices and our overall economy. The NAM and ACCF released national data as well as the analysis for 15 industrial states that would be impacted greatly if this or similar legislation is signed into law. NAM said the full report, including the data covering the remaining 35 states will be released in the coming weeks.

The NAM/ACCF study is in addition to other recent studies on the economic impacts of climate legislation. On August 4, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) released a report -- Energy Market and Economic Impacts of H.R. 2454 [See WIMS 8/5/09]. On June 22, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released an analysis of the potential effects on households of the cap-and-trade program that would be implemented pursuant to H.R. 2454 [See WIMS 6/23/09]. Also, on June 23, U.S. EPA released a new 53-page report with a 107-page appendix entitled, EPA Analysis of the American Clean Energy and Security [ACES] Act of 2009 H.R. 2454 in the 111th Congress [See WIMS 6/24/09].

Jay Timmons, executive vice president of the NAM said, “Climate change is a very complex issue and I hope Senators will look closely at this study as they consider climate change legislation this fall. At a time when our country is struggling to come out of our longest and deepest economic downturn since the Great Depression, lawmakers should be focused on policies that provide incentives for businesses so they can create jobs and grow. Unfortunately, this study confirms that the Waxman-Markey Bill is an ‘anti-jobs, anti-growth’ piece of legislation. Further, leaders of countries such as China and India have made it clear they have no intention of reducing their own emissions. Waxman-Markey would give an edge to overseas competitors, discouraging domestic investment and the creation of American jobs.”

According to a release from NAM, the NAM/ACCF study accounts for all Federal energy laws and regulations currently in effect. It accounts for increased access to oil and natural gas supplies, new and extended tax credits for renewable generation technologies, increased World Oil Price (WOP) profile, as well as permit allocations for industry and international offsets. Additionally, the provisions of the stimulus package passed in February are included in this study.
Key findings of the NAM/ACCF study include: Cumulative Loss in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) up to $3.1 trillion (2012-2030); Employment losses up to 2.4 million jobs in 2030; Residential electricity price increases up to 50 percent by 2030; and Gasoline price increases (per gallon) up 26 percent by 2030.

Dr. Margo Thorning, senior vice president and chief economist for ACCF said, “This data shows that we cannot divorce the environmental impacts from potential economic damages. Policymakers may have the best of intentions when it comes to the environment, but it’s crucial that we compare the economic cost to the legislation’s actual impact on global GHG reductions. Considering that developing countries such as China and India have publicly stated that they will not undertake similar emissions policies, there would be almost no global environmental benefits from the bill. Ultimately, this study shows that Waxman-Markey, would significantly decrease employment and increase energy prices at a time when we can least afford it.”

The study also indicates that industrial states would be "disproportionately impacted by high energy prices, loss of jobs and income." The 15 states analyzed in the initial study include: AR; IL, IN; IA; KY; MI; MN; MO; NC; OH; PA; TN; VA; WV; AND WI. SAIC used a modified version of the National Energy Modeling System, NEMS/ACCF-NAM 2, and the NAM and ACCF input assumptions, to quantify the impact of the Waxman-Markey bill.

In advance of the NAM/ACCF study, the Environmental Defense Fund (EDF) issued a release providing links to several contradictory studies. EDF said, "NAM/ACCF's study from last year, which was seriously flawed. It looked at the earlier Lieberman-Warner bill, but it ignored important provisions of the legislation and imposed artificial constraints on the economy's ability to reduce emissions."

Access a release from NAM (click here). Access links to the national and 15 state-by-state economic impacts as well as a PowerPoint presentation and executive summary and more (click here). Access a release from EDF with links to additional studies (click here). Access EPA's website for various climate change legislation economic analyses (click here).