CBO expects that opening ANWR to development would:
- Yield about $5 billion in additional receipts over the next 10 years, primarily in the form of bonus payments made by private firms for the opportunity to explore for and develop resources in particular areas.
- Increase royalties by roughly $2 billion to $4 billion a year during the 20232035 period if oil and natural gas eventually were produced from those lands. Those estimates are quite uncertain.
- Provide the state of Alaska between 50 percent and 90 percent of those federal receipts if the specifications in the authorizing legislation were similar to those in recent legislation.
CBO anticipates that new legislation directing the Department of the Interior to immediately offer most other federal lands for oil and gas leasing without any restrictions would accelerate the collection of around $2 billion of future leasing receipts into the next decade. Most of that revenue would come from OCS leases, and a portion of the proceeds would be shared with state governments. CBO expects that state and local policies toward resource development, particularly in California, will play a major role in determining whether or when those resources are developed.
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