USGCRP Releases Draft National Climate Assessment Report

Jan 11: The U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), has announced the latest draft of the Third National Climate Assessment Report (NCA). The NCA is an important resource for understanding and communicating climate change science and impacts in the United States. It informs the nation about already observed changes, the current status of the climate, and anticipated trends for the future. The NCA report process integrates scientific information from multiple sources and sectors to highlight key findings and significant gaps in our knowledge. The NCA also establishes consistent methods for evaluating climate impacts in the U.S. in the context of broader global change. Finally, findings from the NCA provide input to federal science priorities and are used by U.S. citizens, communities, and businesses as they create more sustainable and environmentally sound plans for the nation's future.

 

    The National Climate Assessment Development Advisory Committee (NCADAC), charged with developing the 2013 report and recommendations, released the draft of the Third National Climate Assessment online today and it will be officially released for public review on Monday, January 14. Comments on the report will be accepted until April 12, 2013.

 

    The NCA is envisioned as an inclusive, nationwide process with many key objectives, including: Evaluating, integrating, and assessing relevant climate science and information from multiple sources; Summarizing and synthesizing the findings of the U.S. Global Change Research Program; Increasing understanding of what is known and not known about climate change; Informing climate science research priorities; Building climate assessment capacity, including vulnerability assessment and documentation of impacts in regions and sectors; and Supporting climate‐literacy and skilled use of NCA findings.

 

    According to an announcement, the NCA process and third report set the stage for more comprehensive assessments in the future. It differs from previous U.S. climate assessments in a variety of ways:

• It is an ongoing process, rather than a periodic report‐writing activity
• The NCA includes climate impacts and projections, but also assesses progress in response activities such as adaptation and mitigation
• Partnerships inside and outside of the government support this effort, including entities in both the public and the private sectors
• National indicators of change within regions and sectors are being developed, along with consistent and ongoing methods for evaluation
• This NCA report will be entirely web‐based and the final report will be submitted as an e‐book; this allows easier access to data for citizens and scientists and transparent "line of sight" between data and conclusions
• This NCA is designed to support decision making processes within and across regions and sectors of the U.S. while also considering the international context of U.S. activities and impacts

    The Global Change Research Act of 1990 requires an assessment report at least every four years. The federal government is responsible for producing these reports through the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP), a collaboration of 13 federal science agencies. A 60 member federal advisory committee, the National Climate Assessment Development Advisory Committee (NCADAC), has been charged with developing the 2013 report and recommendations about the ongoing assessment process. The report itself is being written by 240 authors drawn from academia; local, state, and federal government; the private sector; and the nonprofit sector.

 

    Michael Brune, Sierra Club Executive Director, issued a statement saying, "The Sierra Club welcomes the release of the draft of the National Climate Assessment, and our 2.1 million members and supporters are ready to support and amplify these findings. This report underscores what many of us already know -- climate disruption is here and it is exacting real, human and economic costs. 2012 was the hottest year on record for our nation. It was a year rife with droughts, wildfires and extreme weather events like Superstorm Sandy. In addition, the number of weather catastrophes driven by climate disruption across the world has tripled since 1980, with the greatest increases in North America. The situation is dire and requires nothing short of bold, decisive action by President Obama and our leaders to cut our addiction to fossil fuels and build a clean energy economy."

 

    Access an overview and background (click here). Access complete information and link to the draft report (click here). [Note: the report is very large (147MB) and may be downloaded in 30 chapters and appendices.] Access the statement from Sierra Club (click here). [#Climate]

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Reports & Negotiations Toward Global Treaty On Mercury Releases

Jan 9: the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) released what it is calling the most comprehensive assessment ever of global emissions and indicates that communities in developing countries are facing increasing health and environmental risks linked to exposure to mercury. Parts of Africa, Asia and South America could see increasing emissions of mercury into the environment, due mainly to the use of the toxic element in small-scale gold mining, and through the burning of coal for electricity generation. UNEP produced its first Global Mercury Assessment in 2002, and a subsequent study in 2007. The 2013 assessment is the most comprehensive to date, and includes information on the release and impacts of mercury in aquatic environments for the first time.

 

    The Global Mercury Assessment 2013 reports that emissions of the toxic metal from artisanal gold mining have doubled since 2005, in part due to new and better information, but also due to rising gold prices that are expected to lead to further increases. The report indicates that due to rapid industrialization, Asia is the largest regional emitter of mercury, and accounts for just under half of all global releases. The UNEP study assesses for the first time at a global level releases of mercury into rivers and lakes. Much human exposure to mercury is through the consumption of contaminated fish, making aquatic environments the critical link to human health.

    In the past 100 years, man-made emissions have caused the amount of mercury in the top 100 metres of the world's oceans to double. Concentrations in deeper waters have increased by up to 25 percent. The study, which provides a comprehensive breakdown of mercury emissions by region and economic sector, also highlights significant releases into the environment linked to contaminated sites and deforestation. The report says an estimated 260 tonnes of mercury -- previously held in soils -- are being released into rivers and lakes.

    Along with a parallel UNEP publication Mercury: Time to Act, the new assessment will be formally presented at the International Negotiating Committee on Mercury (INC5), to be held in Geneva on January 13-18, 2013. Governments attending the major conference are aiming to conclude discussions on a global legally binding treaty to minimize risks to people and the environment from exposure to mercury. The treaty would reduce cases of neurological and behavioral disorders, and other health problems linked to mercury, as well as the contamination of soils and rivers caused by man-made emissions of the metal. Governments gave the green light to negotiations towards a global treaty back in 2009 at the UNEP Governing Council held in Nairobi, Kenya. Following the conclusion of the INC5 negotiations, the text will be open for signature at a diplomatic conference (Conference of Plenipotentiaries), which will be held in 2013 in Japan.

    United Nations Under-Secretary-General and UNEP Executive Director Achim Steiner said, "Mercury, which exists in various forms, remains a major global, regional and national challenge in terms of threats to human health and the environment. In 2009 at the UNEP Governing Council, nations agreed to launch negotiations for a legally binding treaty aimed at bringing down releases from sources such as industry and mining, address mercury-containing products, and tackle historical pollution sites -- the final negotiations begin in just a few days' time. Mercury has been known as a toxin and a hazard for centuries-but today we have many of the alternative technologies and processes needed to reduce the risks for tens of millions of people, including pregnant mothers and their babies. A good outcome can also assist in a more sustainable future for generations to come."

    Mercury released from industry and other man-made sources can circulate in the environment for up to centuries at a time. This means that it is likely to be several years or decades before reductions in mercury emissions have a demonstrable effect on mercury levels in nature and the food chain. The UNEP studies say this reinforces the need for swift action by governments, industry and civil society to strengthen efforts to reduce mercury emissions and releases. The report says delays in action will lead to slower recovery of ecosystems and a greater legacy of pollution.

    The report also highlights the rising levels of mercury present in the Arctic. An estimated 200 tonnes of mercury are deposited in the Arctic each year, generally far from where it originated. Studies have shown a ten-fold increase in levels of mercury in certain Arctic wildlife species in the past 150 years, due mainly, it is thought, to human activity.

    The UNEP reports state that global emissions of mercury have remained relatively stable in the last twenty years, with 2010 emissions from human activities thought to be just under 2,000 tonnes. Despite improved availability of data on mercury, the emissions estimate is still subject to uncertainty, and covers a range of 1010 to 4070 tonnes. Along with coal burning, the use of mercury to separate metal from ore in small-scale gold mining remains the chief source of emissions worldwide. 

    Annual emissions from small-scale gold mining are estimated at 727 tonnes, or 35 percent of the global total. Greater exposure to mercury poses a direct threat to the health of some 10-15 million people who are directly involved in small-scale gold mining, mainly in Africa, Asia and South America. An estimated 3 million women and children work in the industry. Mercury-free methods and other low-cost solutions for reducing emissions during gold extraction are available, but socio-economic conditions, and low awareness of the risks of mercury, are barriers to adopting safer techniques.

    Coal burning is responsible for some 475 tonnes of mercury emissions annually, or around 24 percent of the global total. Despite increased coal combustion in certain regions, more stringent regulations on pollution in several countries have contributed to reducing overall mercury emissions from coal burning and off-setting part of the emissions arising from increased industrial activity.

    Other sources of mercury highlighted in the UNEP publications include: Metal and cement production, through fuel extraction and combustion of fossil fuels; Consumer products such as electronic devices, switches, batteries, energy-efficient light bulbs and cosmetics such as skin-lightening creams and mascara. Mercury contained in such goods can also enter the waste stream; Dentistry: Around 340 tonnes of mercury are used annually to make fillings and other dental products, of which up to 100 tonnes are likely to enter the waste stream; Plastic production -- particularly the manufacture of poly vinyl chloride (PVC). PVC is in high demand in many countries where there are extensive building projects; Chlor-alkali industry (production of chlorine and caustic soda from salt); and Primary mining -- although the practice is now limited to a handful of countries with only one (Kyrgyzstan) still exporting.

    Efforts to tackle the environmental and health threat posed by mercury have grown over recent decades, according to the reports. Notable actions include:

• The UNEP Mercury Products Partnership has set the goal of reducing demand for mercury-containing thermometers and blood pressure devices by 70 percent by 2017
• USA has finalized the Mercury and Air Toxics Standard which predicts to reduce mercury emissions by 20 tonnes by 2016
• European Union banned mercury exports in 2011 and the USA has just started an export ban from 1 January 2013
• UNEP has supported National Action Plans by Argentina, Uruguay and other countries to find environmentally-sound solutions for the storage and disposal of excess mercury and waste products

    Yet despite such steps, coordinated action on a global level to reduce environmental and health risks posed by exposure to mercury has been comparatively slow. The UNEP studies state that accelerated action, such as finalizing a global, legally binding treaty, promoting the availability of low-mercury technologies, and other measures, can support a sharp decline in demand for mercury. The reports recommend that to achieve this, "primary mining of mercury should be ceased as soon as possible, and demand met by investing in improved recycling measures. Governments should ensure regulatory frameworks and incentives to promote the transition to viable, safe and commercial alternatives, resulting in reduced releases of mercury and other pollutants."

    Access a release from UNEP (click here). Access the 42-page, latest draft of the Global Mercury Assessment 2013 (click here). Access the 44-page Mercury: Time to Act report (click here). Access complete information on the Negotiating Process, the upcoming INC 5 meeting and previous INC meetings (click here). [#Toxics]

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2012 Was U.S. Warmest In Recorded History; 3.2°F Above Average

Jan 8: The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), National Climatic Data Center, released a 2012 State of the Climate data and information indicating that "2012 was warmest and second most extreme year on record for the contiguous U.S."

 

    According to summary information, 2012 was an historic year for extreme weather that included drought, wildfires, hurricanes and storms; however, tornado activity was below average. 2012 marked the warmest year on record for the contiguous United States with the year consisting of a record warm spring, second warmest summer, fourth warmest winter and a warmer-than-average autumn. The average temperature for 2012 was 55.3°F, 3.2°F above the 20th century average, and 1.0°F above 1998, the previous warmest year.

    The average precipitation total for the contiguous U.S. for 2012 was 26.57 inches, 2.57 inches below average, making it the 15th driest year on record for the nation. At its peak in July, the drought of 2012 engulfed 61 percent of the nation with the Mountain West, Great Plains, and Midwest experiencing the most intense drought conditions. The dry conditions proved ideal for wildfires in the West, charring 9.2 million acres -- the third highest on record.

    The data indicates that the U.S. Climate Extremes Index indicated that 2012 was the second most extreme year on record for the nation. The index, which evaluates extremes in temperature and precipitation, as well as land-falling tropical cyclones, was nearly twice the average value and second only to 1998. To date, 2012 has seen 11 disasters that have reached the $1 billion threshold in losses, to include Sandy, Isaac, and tornado outbreaks experienced in the Great Plains, Texas and Southeast/Ohio Valley.

    NOAA also reported on Alaska and Hawaii and indicated in summary that Alaska was cooler and slightly wetter than average during 2012. The year began very cold for the State with a January temperature 14.0°F below the 1971-2000 average. Each subsequent season was also cooler than average, resulting in an annual temperature 2.3°F below average. Much of 2012 was also wetter than average, and the annual precipitation total was 9.2 percent above average. Drought conditions continued to plague Hawaii during 2012. At the beginning of 2012, 47.4 percent of the State was experiencing moderate-to-exceptional drought, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. By the end of the year, the percent area experiencing moderate-to-exceptional drought expanded to 63.3 percent of the State.

    Senator Barbara Boxer (D-CA), Chairman of the Environment and Public Works Committee, issued a statement on the NOAA data release saying, "The facts speak for themselves -- whether it is NOAA's announcement today that 2012 was the hottest year on record or the devastation caused by Superstorm Sandy, predictions of dangerous climate change impacts are coming true before our eyes. We need to focus now on what we must do to address climate change so that we can protect our people, local communities, and the nation's economy."

 

    Representative Ed Markey (D-MA), the Ranking Member on the House Natural Resources Committee issued a statement saying, "Climate change is costing American lives and livelihoods. In our warmest year on record, the United States suffered the most widespread drought since the Dust Bowl, record wildfires that engulfed neighborhoods, and superstorm Sandy, which killed more than 100 people and could cost taxpayers $60 billion. Our planet is warming, our oceans are rising, and our storms are strengthening. Congress can no longer afford to watch the devastation from an air conditioned perch. We must make 2013 a year for climate action. Waiting around for the next superstorm to flood Boston's Faneuil Hall or the Boston Garden is not an option."

 

    The Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow (CFACT) disputes the NOAA information and issued a report at the Doha UNFCCC meeting in December 2012, indicating, ". . .the latest peer-reviewed studies, data and analysis undermine the case that the weather is more 'extreme' or 'unprecedented.' On every key measure, claims of extreme weather in our current climate fail to hold up to scrutiny." The report, Extreme Weather Report 2012, indicates that, "Extreme weather events are ever present, and there is no evidence of systematic increases."

 

    Access a release and details on the NOAA data (click here). Access the statement from Sen. Boxer (click here). Access the statement from Rep. Markey (click here). Access the CFACT's 35-page report with extensive links (click here). [#Climate]

 

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Supreme Court Rules In LA County Flood Control Dist. v. NRDC

Jan 8: The U.S. Supreme Court issued an opinion in the case of Los Angeles County Flood Control District, Petitioner v. Natural Resources Defense Council, Inc., et al. (SupCt. docket 11-460). The high profile case with 22 amicus briefs, deals with the issue of pollutants stemming from municipal stormwater systems [See WIMS 11/30/12]. In March 2011, the U.S. Court of Appeals, Ninth Circuit (Case No. 10-56017) ruled partially in favor of NRDC, et al [See WIMS 3/11/11] and overturned a district court's grant of summary judgment in favor of two municipal entities and Los Angeles County. In that case Plaintiffs contended that Defendants County of Los Angeles (County) and Los Angeles County Flood Control District (District) were discharging polluted urban stormwater runoff collected by municipal separate storm sewer systems (ms4) into navigable waters in Southern California. 

 

    Today, the Supreme Court said, "The Court granted review in this case limited to a single question: Under the Clean Water Act (CWA), 86 Stat.816, as amended, 33 U. S. C. §1251 et seq., does the flow of water out of a concrete channel within a river rank as a 'discharge of a pollutant'? In this Court, the parties and the United States as amicus curiae agree that the answer to this question is 'no.' They base this accord on South Fla. Water Management Dist. v. Miccosukee Tribe, 541 U. S. 95, 109–112 (2004), in which we accepted that pumping polluted water from one part of a water body into another part of the same body is not a discharge of pollutants- under the CWA. Adhering to the view we took in Miccosukee, we hold that the parties correctly answered the sole question presented in the negative. The decision in this suit rendered by the Court of Appeals for the Ninth Circuit is inconsistent with our determination. We therefore reverse that court's judgment."

 

    In its unanimous decision, the Supreme Court explained further, "In Miccosukee, polluted water was removed from a canal, transported through a pump station, and then de-posited into a nearby reservoir. 541 U. S., at 100. We held that this water transfer would count as a discharge of pollutants under the CWA only if the canal and the reservoir were 'meaningfully distinct water bodies.' Id., at 112. It follows, a fortiori, from Miccosukee that no discharge of pollutants occurs when water, rather than being removed and then returned to a water body, simply flows from one portion of the water body to another. We hold, therefore, that the flow of water from an improved portion of a navigable waterway into an unimproved portion of the very same waterway does not qualify as a discharge of pollutants under the CWA. Because the decision below cannot be squared with that holding, the Court of Appeals' judgment must be reversed."

 

    Further, the Supreme Court said, "The NRDC and Baykeeper urge that the Court of Appeals reached the right result, albeit for the wrong reason.The monitoring system proposed by the District and written into its permit showed numerous instances in which water-quality standards were exceeded. Under the permit's terms, the NRDC and Baykeeper maintain, the ex- exceedances detected at the instream monitoring stations are by themselves sufficient to establish the District's ability under the CWA for its upstream discharges. See Brief for Respondents 33–62. This argument failed below. See 673 F. 3d, at 898, 901; App. to Pet. for Cert. 100–102. It is not embraced within, or even touched by,the narrow question on which we granted certiorari. We therefore do not address, and indicate no opinion on, the issue the NRDC and Baykeeper seek to substitute for the question we took up for review."

 

    NRDC issued a release commenting on the decision saying the groups had sought to hold the county responsible for the "toxic mix of mercury, arsenic, cyanide, lead and fecal bacteria found in billions of gallons of stormwater runoff." NRDC said, Today's Supreme Court ruling resolved a narrow legal issue that the parties all agreed on: that the flow of polluted water within a single river does not constitute a 'discharge of pollutants' under the Clean Water Act. The Court did not excuse the County from liability for ongoing water pollution in the Los Angeles and San Gabriel Rivers."

    Steve Fleischli, senior attorney and director of NRDC's national water program said, "We'll continue to seek to hold the Los Angeles County Flood Control District responsible for cleaning up its water pollution. Unless something changes, stormwater pollution will continue to sicken up to one million people in Southern California every year, while local government turns a blind eye and avoids basic infrastructure solutions that will protect people, preserve water quality and increase water reserves." Liz Crosson, Executive Director of L.A. Waterkeeper said, "The county has managed to game the system in a way that has allowed the pollution of our waterways to go unaddressed for many years. The county is the largest source of stormwater pollution to local waterways, and today it has escaped accountability, but only temporarily."

    The groups indicated that, "This pollution can be prevented, however, through the development of green infrastructure solutions, such as on-site water capture and filtration. These techniques trap stormwater pollution at the source, rather than allow it to flow to sea untreated, and allow rainwater to be reused rather than wasted. Green infrastructure is not only good for public health and smart environmental policy, it will save money, increase water supplies, reduce flood risks and clean up local beaches and rivers. The county has not used these available techniques as effectively as it should."

    Access the complete opinion (click here). Access a release from NRDC (click here). Access the SupCt docket for the case (click here). Access links to all of the merit and amicus briefs in the case (click here). Access the complete opinion of the Ninth Circuit (click here).  [#Water, #SupCt]

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Environment, Energy Programs Survive Fiscal Cliff Vote

Jan 1: In a 12th-plus hour, last minute, drama-packed deal, of the 112th Congress, the so-called fiscal cliff was avoided [See WIMS 11/8/12]. Simultaneously, the new 113th Congress has set the stage for the next round of economic, regulatory and social uncertainty which will take place over the next two months on the issue of raising the U.S. debt limit to pay for expenses already incurred. The sides have drawn their lines in the sand with the President saying he will not negotiate on the debt ceiling and House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) saying he will no longer negotiate with the President. The deal is contained within H.R.8, As Amended; An act entitled the "American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012" which passed the Senate with a vote of 89-8; and the House 257-167. The House vote included 172 Democrats and 85 Republicans. In announcing that he would sign the deal, President Obama indicated,:

"Under this law, more than 98 percent of Americans and 97 percent of small businesses will not see their income taxes go up. Millions of families will continue to receive tax credits to help raise their kids and send them to college. Companies will continue to receive tax credits for the research that they do, the investments they make, and the clean energy jobs that they create. And 2 million Americans who are out of work but out there looking, pounding the pavement every day, are going to continue to receive unemployment benefits as long as they're actively looking for a job. . .

 

"Tonight's agreement further reduces the deficit by raising $620 billion in revenue from the wealthiest households in America. And there will be more deficit reduction as Congress decides what to do about the automatic spending cuts that we have now delayed for two months. . .

 

"But we can't simply cut our way to prosperity. Cutting spending has to go hand-in-hand with further reforms to our tax code so that the wealthiest corporations and individuals can't take advantage of loopholes and deductions that aren't available to most Americans. And we can't keep cutting things like basic research and new technology and still expect to succeed in a 21st century economy. So we're going to have to continue to move forward in deficit reduction, but we have to do it in a balanced way, making sure that we are growing even as we get a handle on our spending. 

Now, one last point I want to make -- while I will negotiate over many things, I will not have another debate with this Congress over whether or not they should pay the bills that they've already racked up through the laws that they passed. Let me repeat: We can't not pay bills that we've already incurred. If Congress refuses to give the United States government the ability to pay these bills on time, the consequences for the entire global economy would be catastrophic -- far worse than the impact of a fiscal cliff. . ."

    A fact sheet from the White House indicated that, the agreement extend renewable energy incentives, the R&E tax credit and other business incentives. The agreement extends tax relief for businesses through the end of next year. The fact sheet indicates, "This means extending the Production Tax Credit, a key incentive for renewable energy that many Republicans had been trying to end, as well as the Research & Experimentation tax credit. In addition, the agreement extends 50 percent bonus depreciation, a cost-effective temporary measure to support investment and growth. All of these would be extended through the end of 2013." Additionally, the deal extends the farm bill through the end of the fiscal year, averting a sharp rise in milk prices at the beginning of 2013.

 

    The U.S. Chamber of Commerce President and CEO Thomas J. Donohue issued a statement on the deal saying, "The last minute fiscal cliff deal prevents some of the massive tax increases on the middle class that would have occurred. However, the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has warned that the tax hikes that will take place will mean slower growth, fewer jobs, and less prosperity for all Americans. And, when it comes to cutting spending and controlling the national debt, this deal does not even begin to address the serious fiscal challenges we face.

    "The new Congress and the administration must begin work immediately to slow runaway spending through structural entitlement reforms. They must also spur faster economic growth through comprehensive tax reform and a rapid expansion of American energy, which would create jobs and generate government revenues. This is the only formula that can reduce budget deficits and control our unsustainable national debt. The Chamber and the business community stand ready to work with Congress and the administration to craft and enact a fiscal package that truly addresses the nation's chronic deficits and out-of-control debt."

    The American Wind Energy Association (AWEA) issued a release stating, "America's 75,000 workers in wind energy are celebrating tonight over the continuation of policies expected to save up to 37,000 jobs and create far more over time, and to revive business at nearly 500 manufacturing facilities across the country. The extension of the wind energy Production Tax Credit (PTC), and Investment Tax Credits for community and offshore projects, will allow continued growth of the energy source that installed the most new electrical generating capacity in America last year, with factories or wind farms in all 50 states. The version included in tonight's deal would cover all wind projects that start construction in 2013. Companies that manufacture wind turbines and install them sought that definition to allow for the 18-24 months it takes to develop a new wind farm. . . America's wind energy workers have been living under threat of the PTC's expiration for over a year and layoffs had already begun, as companies idled factories because of a lack of orders for 2013. Uncertain federal policies have caused a "boom-bust" cycle in U.S. wind energy development for over a decade. . ."

    Franz Matzner, associate director of government affairs at the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) said, "Today, Americans can breathe a sigh of relief, thanks to the commitment by President Obama and Democratic leadership in Congress to ensure that this agreement includes new revenues and delays automatic cuts to essential programs that protect our health, our environment and our future. But arbitrary, mandatory cuts to programs that every American relies on still dangle over the nation's head -- cuts that are doubly unnecessary now that a framework is in place to raise new revenues. As Congress works out a longer-term agreement, the Republican leadership must drop its fantasy that the budget can be balanced by slashing environmental and clean energy programs that benefit every American. Furloughed workers, closed national parks, and dirtier air and water won't solve our economic woes. The nation needs a balanced plan that recognizes a healthy environment and a healthy economy go hand in hand."

    Access the complete statement from the President (click here). Access the White House fact sheet on the fiscal cliff deal (click here). Access the statement from the U.S. Chamber (click here). Access a lengthy release form AWEA (click here). Access the statement from NRDC (click here). Access an NRDC blog posting on the deal with comment opportunities (click here). Access legislative details including roll call votes for H.R.8 (click here). [#All]

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BREAKING NEWS: WIMS... Thursday, December 27, 2012

Breaking News Alert

 

 

EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson Announces Resignation

 

Dec 27: U.S. EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson issued a brief statement announcing her departure. She said:

"I want to thank President Obama for the honor he bestowed on me and the confidence he placed in me four years ago this month when he announced my nomination as Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency. At the time I spoke about the need to address climate change, but also said: 'There is much more on the agenda: air pollution, toxic chemicals and children's health issues, redevelopment and waste-site cleanup issues, and justice for the communities who bear disproportionate risk.' As the President said earlier this year when he addressed EPA's employees, 'You help make sure the air we breathe, the water we drink, the food we eat are safe. You help protect the environment not just for our children but their children. And you keep us moving toward energy independence…We have made historic progress on all these fronts.' So, I will leave the EPA confident the ship is sailing in the right direction, and ready in my own life for new challenges, time with my family and new opportunities to make a difference."

    Access the complete announcement (click here).

 

WIMS is on Christmas/New Year's break. We will return with regular postings on January 7, 2013.

 

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EPA Finalizes Boiler MACT, Cement & NHSM Rules

Dec 21: U.S. EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson signed the final changes to Clean Air Act standards for major and area source boilers (i.e. Boiler MACT) and commercial/industrial solid waste incinerators. EPA indicated in a release that the finalized changes to the standards for boilers and certain incinerators will achieve extensive public health protections by slashing toxic air pollution, including mercury and particle pollution, while at the same addressing feedback provided by industry and labor groups, increasing the rule's flexibility and dramatically reducing costs. As a result, 99 percent (99%) of the approximately 1.5 million boilers in the U.S. are not covered or can meet the new standards by conducting periodic maintenance or regular tune-ups.

    According to a release, the final adjustments to the standards are based on an extensive analysis of data and input from states, environmental groups, industry, lawmakers and the public. As a result of information gathered through this review, including significant dialogue and meetings with public health groups, industry, and the public, the final rule dramatically cuts the cost of implementation by individual boilers that EPA proposed in 2010. At the same time, these rules will continue to deliver significant public health benefits. EPA estimates that for every dollar spent to reduce these pollutants, the public will see $13 to $29 in health benefits, including fewer instances of asthma, heart attacks, as well as premature deaths.

    The rules set numerical emission limits for less than one percent of boilers -- those that emit the majority of pollution from this sector. For these high emitting boilers and incinerators, typically operating at refineries, chemical plants and other industrial facilities, EPA is establishing more targeted emissions limits that protect public health and provide industry with practical, cost-effective options to meet the standards.

    EPA also finalized revisions to the Non-Hazardous Secondary Materials (NHSM) Rule to provide clarity on what types of secondary materials are considered non-waste fuels and provide greater flexibility in rule implementation. This final rule classifies a number of secondary materials as categorical non-wastes when used as a fuel and allows for operators to request that EPA identify specific materials through rulemaking as a categorical non-waste fuel.

    Particle pollution and other harmful pollutants released by boilers and incinerators can lead to adverse health effects including cancer, heart disease, aggravated asthma and premature death. In addition, toxic pollutants such as mercury and lead that will be reduced by this rule are linked to developmental disabilities in children. These standards will avoid up to 8,100 premature deaths, prevent 5,100 heart attacks and avert 52,000 asthma attacks per year in 2015.

    In yet another, separate EPA action, to meet a court deadline, the Agency issued final amendments to the 2010 clean air standards for the cement manufacturing industry. EPA said the final amendments maintain the significant emission reductions from the 2010 standards, while providing industry additional time to implement the revised rules.

 

    Representative Ed Markey (D-MA), Ranking Member of the Natural Resources Committee, was one of the first to react to EPA announcement. He praised EPA's action on industrial boilers used in major manufacturing facilities and elsewhere and said the new standards will reduce many types of pollution, including toxic mercury and weather-changing carbon pollution. Rep. Markey said, "Cutting mercury pollution from these industrial facilities will protect our children and cutting carbon pollution from these boilers will help heal the climate. From cars and trucks to power plants and now industrial boilers, the Obama administration is showing it is committed to cutting pollution. Republicans in Congress tried to block these pollution standards, and they failed. In this next Congress, Congressional Republicans should move to a real Plan B on pollution, where they support stronger standards for new power plants and other sources that are damaging our children's lungs and causing more extreme weather."

   

    The National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) President and CEO Jay Timmons issued a statement on the final Boiler MACT regulation saying:

"For the second straight week, the EPA has finalized another costly and crippling regulation at a time when our economy is on the brink. Boiler MACT will not create jobs, and studies indicate it could cost manufacturers as much as $14 billion. Manufacturers are understandably growing more pessimistic about the direction of the economy. The end-of-year regulatory assault on businesses, combined with the uncertainty of the fiscal cliff, makes for one of the worst business environments in living memory.

"The NAM has weighed in with the EPA throughout this entire process to ensure the agency completely understood the damaging economic consequences of this regulation. We appreciate the EPA's efforts to engage with us and to modify the rule to make it more achievable. Unfortunately, this regulation remains far from being realistic. Currently, it is 20 percent more expensive to manufacture in the United States compared to our major trading partners, and Boiler MACT will only drive that differential higher. An improved version of a bad regulation is still a bad regulation.

"The EPA is taking the season of giving too far, as it has now issued three separate multibillion-dollar regulations in just the past seven days. The onslaught of regulations from the EPA means manufacturers will continue to see rising energy prices and skyrocketing compliance costs, which translate into few opportunities for growth and even fewer jobs. Any confidence manufacturers had that the EPA's next four years will be different is quickly eroding. We need a sensible approach to regulations and need the EPA to work with manufacturers to reduce the economic damage of overly aggressive regulations."

    The American Chemistry Council (ACC) issued a brief statement on the EPA actions saying, "We appreciate EPA's thoughtful consideration of these rules and willingness to make sensible changes. While we need to review the rules for technical details, it appears that a number of improvements have been made. These include creating additional subcategories for boilers and more flexible compliance options for meeting emission limits, revising emission limits, allowing the use of work practice standards for certain pollutants, and providing more flexibility for units burning clean gases."

 

    John Walke, director of the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) Clean Air Program said, "These standards are a mixed bag. Americans will breathe cleaner air thanks to the EPA reducing dangerous pollution from thousands of local boilers in communities across the country. This will save more than 8,000 lives every year, an important public health achievement and better than previous standards had promised. The agency, however, eased standards in their final rules for cement manufacturers, which is troubling and deserves further explanation."

 

    James Bradbury, Senior Associate, World Resources Institute (WRI) issued a statement saying, "Just in time for the holidays, this is a welcome gift for people and the planet. These new environmental standards will help spur greater efficiency across a range of U.S. industrial and commercial energy users. The EPA has taken steps to ensure that the rule will promote energy efficiency by improving environmental performance while increasing flexibility for affected facilities. This is good news for the manufacturing workforce, for public health, and for the climate."

 

    Access a release from EPA on the three actions (click here). Access more detailed information on the final standards for boilers and incinerators (click here). Access more on the Non-Hazardous Secondary Materials Rule (click here). Access a release from Rep. Markey (click here). Access the statement from NAM (click here). Access the statement from ACC (click here). Access the statement from NRDC (click here). Access the statement from WRI (click here). [#Air]

 

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DOI Releases Final Plan For National Petroleum Reserve In Alaska

Dec 19: The Department of Interior (DOI) Secretary Ken Salazar announced the availability of the Integrated Activity Plan and Final Environmental Impact Statement (Final IAP/EIS) for the National Petroleum Reserve in Alaska (NPR-A). The preferred alternative identified in the EIS would allow for the development of 72 percent of the estimated economically recoverable oil in the Reserve while protecting the vital subsistence resources of Alaska Natives and the habitat of world-class wildlife populations. Secretary Salazar also issued a memo to the Bureau of Land Management (BLM) confirming that the preferred alternative will allow for the potential construction of pipelines carrying oil or gas from operations in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas through the NPR-A.

    After receiving more than 400,000 public comments and following two days of meetings and visits with North Slope leaders, Salazar first announced the key elements of the Preferred Alternative (Alternative B-2) for the IAP/EIS in August. Release of the Final IAP/EIS now paves the way for the Secretary to issue a Record of Decision (ROD) that adopts the final management plan in the first quarter of 2013. He said, "As part of President Obama's all-of-the-above strategy to continue to expand domestic energy production, this comprehensive plan will guide the transition from leasing and exploration to responsible production and transport of the Reserve's substantial oil and gas resources. A balanced approach will allow us to continue to expand our leasing in the NPR-A, as we've done over the last three years, while protecting significant caribou herds, migratory bird habitat and sensitive coastal resources that are critically important to the culture and subsistence lifestyle of Alaska Natives and our nation's conservation heritage."

    In the memo, Secretary Salazar also requested that the BLM engage in additional outreach to North Slope communities in the coming weeks, with an eye toward establishing a stakeholder group that will provide ongoing input on the management of protected areas and other NPR-A implementation issues. The Notice of Availability of the Final IAP/EIS, which will be published in the Federal Register on December 28, 2012, will start a minimum review period of 30 days prior to the issuance of a final decision by the Secretary. The Final IAP/EIS is the first management plan that covers the entire Reserve, including 9.2 million acres in the southwest area. Previous plans covered the northeast and northwest planning areas only. The comprehensive blueprint will allow for access to oil and gas resources on 11.8 million acres, which are estimated to hold 549 million barrels of economically recoverable oil and 8.7 trillion cubic feet of economically recoverable natural gas.

    DOI indicated in a release that domestic oil and gas production has grown each year the President has been in office, with domestic oil production currently higher than any time in nearly a decade and natural gas production at its highest level ever. Foreign oil imports now account for less than 50 percent of the oil consumed in America -- the lowest level since 1995. In fiscal year 2012, DOI paid out $12.15 billion in revenue generated from energy production on public lands and offshore areas -- a $1 billion increase over the previous year.

    Following President Obama's direction in May, 2011 that annual oil and gas lease sales be conducted in the NPR-A, BLM offered three million acres last December that generated 17 winning bids covering more than 120,000 acres. Another lease sale on November 7, 2012, offered 4.5 million acres and received 14 winning bids on 160,088 total acres. There are now 177 authorized oil and gas leases in the NPR-A, encompassing 1.4 million acres. To date, only exploratory drilling has occurred, but last year, with the assistance of the President's Interagency Working Group on Coordination of Domestic Energy Development and Permitting in Alaska, the Corps of Engineers issued permits to ConocoPhillips to allow for the first commercial oil and gas production in the Reserve.

    U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) issued a statement on the DOI Final IAP/EIS saying, "I continue to be concerned that the management plan chosen by the administration greatly restricts access to our nation's oil and natural gas resources, especially in the eastern portion of the petroleum reserve. I recognize Interior Secretary Ken Salazar's effort in the memorandum to clarify that pipelines may be constructed across the petroleum reserve, I remain concerned, however, that the plan sets up roadblocks to an economically feasible project. It's incumbent on the secretary to be clear in the record of decision that any future NEPA review of potential pipeline routes and infrastructure not prohibit construction of an economic project. As written, the absence of clear direction in the EIS jeopardizes future oil and gas production development in the Beaufort and Chukchi seas.

    "It's hard to have confidence in the plan given the discrepancies contained in the initial announcement. The administration's announcement indicates that it makes 72 percent of the oil in the reserve open to development, including allowing for recovery of an estimated 8.7 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. What the announcement doesn't say is that the plan locks up 83.5 percent of the likely natural gas in the reserve. That is totally unacceptable to the nation and to future economy of Alaska."

    She noted that just last year the Department of the Interior placed the mean estimate of natural gas available for recovery from the petroleum reserve at 52.8 trillion cubic feet. She said her position is that the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska's "legal purpose" is to provide petroleum to the United States to ensure the nation's energy security.

 

    Sierra Club Executive Director Michael Brune issued a statement indicating that the DOI plan would protect nearly 11 million acres of important wildlife habitat. He said, "Today's announcement is great news for conservation in America's Arctic. The final plan makes it clear that a balanced approach for using and protecting the western Arctic is possible and beneficial. For the first time it recognizes the importance of the Reserve for wildlife and Native communities, not just for fossil fuel development.

    "The Reserve supports the calving grounds of our nation's largest caribou herd, the highest concentration of grizzly bears and wolverines in the Arctic, and provides critical habitat for millions of shorebirds and waterfowl. The areas most important wildlife -- areas like Tshekpuk Lake and the Utukok Uplands -- must be kept off-limits to drilling and mining. This plan reflects the widespread desire voiced by Alaska Natives, businesses, scientists, and hundreds of thousands of Americans for protection of these irreplaceable special places in the western Arctic. We look forward to seeing these areas thrive as the plan is implemented. We look forward to continuing to work with the Obama Administration to fight climate disruption and to protect the special places in America's Arctic. The best solution is to move our country beyond oil. We should be investing in ways to make our cars cleaner and more efficient and expanding our transportation choices, not opening up our Arctic wonders to drilling and mining."

    Access a release from DOI and link to related information (click here). Access the NPR-A Final IAP/EIS documents from the BLM-Alaska website (click here). Access Secretary Salazar's memo to the Bureau of Land Management (click here). Access a map of the NPR-A final plan delineation and additional information (click here). Access the statement from Sen. Murkowski (click here). Access the statement from Sierra Club (click here). [#Energy/OilGas, #Wildlife, #Land]

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Dems Call For Climate Change Hearings; Cite Recent Reports

Dec 19: Several Democrats on the House Natural Resources Committee, citing recent assessments by the U.S. government of climate threats against America's natural resources, called on committee Republicans to immediately hold hearings on climate change and America's natural heritage. The Members said, "We believe that the Committee should hold a comprehensive series of oversight hearings to examine the impact of climate change and related extreme weather events on our water resources, our forests, our wildlife and our fisheries and oceans in the new Congress. We strongly urge you to convene such hearings and we look forward to working with you in planning such hearings in the New Year."

 

    According to a release, a ten year assessment released by the Forest Service (see below) on the conditions of America's Federal forests found that climate change will decrease the amount of drinking water available from our forests, and an increase in wildfire. And a recent report by the Department of Interior found that the Colorado River Basin would experience huge deficiencies in supply of water for farmers and families, in large part because of climate change.

    Representative Ed Markey (D-MA), the Ranking Member of the committee, was joined in the letter to Chairman Doc Hastings (R-WA), by Representatives Raúl Grijalva (D-AZ), the Ranking Member of the Subcommittee on National Parks, Forests and Lands, Grace Napolitano (D-CA), the Ranking Member of the Subcommittee on Water and Power, and Gregorio Sablan (D-MP), the Ranking Member of the Subcommittee on Fisheries, Wildlife, Oceans and Insular Affairs.

    The Democrats said in their letter, "We believe that the Committee should hold a comprehensive series of oversight hearings to examine the impact of climate change and related extreme weather events on our water resources, our forests, our wildlife and our fisheries and oceans in the new Congress." The action mirrors similar, multiple requests from Representative Henry Waxman (D-CA) and various Democratic members of the House Energy and Commerce Committee for that committee to hold hearings related to climate change and its impacts.

    The letter cites the "almost apocalyptic" weather that affected the United States this year as one reason for concern. The Democrats focus on several recent studies, however, that point to troubling issues for America's natural resources, which are overseen by the committee.

    The Forest Service report notes that while America's National Forests are the single largest source of drinking water in the Nation, supplying water to over 66 million Americans, "The result of the combination of increasing water demand and declining water yields is an increase in vulnerability of the U.S. water supply to shortage, especially in the larger Southwest and Great Plains." According to a release from the Forest Service, the study shows the potential for significant loss of privately-owned forests to development and fragmentation, which could substantially reduce benefits from forests that the public now enjoys including clean water, wildlife habitat, forest products and others. Agriculture Under Secretary Harris Sherman said, "We should all be concerned by the projected decline in our nation's forests and the corresponding loss of the many critical services they provide such as clean drinking water, wildlife habitat, carbon sequestration, wood products and outdoor recreation. Today's report offers a sobering perspective on what is at stake and the need to maintain our commitment to conserve these critical assets."

    The Forest Service assessment's projections are influenced by a set of scenarios with varying assumptions about U.S. population and economic growth, global population and economic growth, global wood energy consumption and U.S. land use change from 2010 to 2060. Using those scenarios, the report forecasts key trends including: Forest areas will decline as a result of development, particularly in the South, where population is projected to grow the most; Timber prices are expected to remain relatively flat; Rangeland area is expected to continue its slow decline but rangeland productivity is stable with forage sufficient to meet expected livestock grazing demands; Biodiversity may continue to erode because projected loss of forestland will impact the variety of forest species; and Recreation use is expected to trend upward.

    The Colorado River Basin study cited by the Democrats says that there will be a reduction of 9 percent in flow of the Colorado River over the next 50 years compared to the last 100 years, and that droughts will be more intense. The number of people who could be affected by shortages due to drought and demand could double to 76.5 million people by 2060, according to the report.

    According to a release from the Department of Interior (DOI) Bureau of Reclamation, the average imbalance in future supply and demand is projected to be greater than 3.2 million acre-feet by 2060. One acre-foot of water is approximately the amount of water used by a single household in a year. The study projects that the largest increase in demand will come from municipal and industrial users, owing to population growth. The Colorado River Basin currently provides water to some 40 million people, and the study estimates that this number could nearly double to approximately 76.5 million people by 2060, under a rapid growth scenario.

    DOI Secretary Ken Salazar said, "There's no silver bullet to solve the imbalance between the demand for water and the supply in the Colorado River Basin over the next 50 years -- rather, it's going to take diligent planning and collaboration from all stakeholders to identify and move forward with practical solutions. Water is the lifeblood of our communities, and this study provides a solid platform to explore actions we can take toward a sustainable water future. While not all of the proposals included in the study are feasible, they underscore the broad interest in finding a comprehensive set of solutions."

    The Democrats did not mention another very relevant study released yesterday (December 18), prepared by  the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the National Wildlife Federation (NWF) and Arizona State University in Tempe [See WIMS 12/18/12]. The technical report on biodiversity and ecosystems used as scientific input for the 2013 Third National Climate Assessment indicates that plant and animal species are shifting their geographic ranges and the timing of their life events -- such as flowering, laying eggs or migrating -- at faster rates than researchers documented just a few years ago. The report, Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity, Ecosystems, and Ecosystem Services, synthesizes the scientific understanding of the way climate change is affecting ecosystems, ecosystem services and the diversity of species, as well as what strategies might be used by natural resource practitioners to decrease current and future risks.

    Access a release from the House Democrats and link to the letter (click here). Access a release from the Forest Service and link to the complete report (click here). Access a release from DOI/BLM and link to the complete report (click here). [#Climate, #Land, #Agriculture]

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Climate Change Impacts On Biodiversity & Ecosystems

Dec 18: A technical report on biodiversity and ecosystems used as scientific input for the 2013 Third National Climate Assessment indicates that plant and animal species are shifting their geographic ranges and the timing of their life events -- such as flowering, laying eggs or migrating -- at faster rates than researchers documented just a few years ago. The report, Impacts of Climate Change on Biodiversity, Ecosystems, and Ecosystem Services, synthesizes the scientific understanding of the way climate change is affecting ecosystems, ecosystem services and the diversity of species, as well as what strategies might be used by natural resource practitioners to decrease current and future risks. More than 60 Federal, academic and other scientists, including the lead authors from the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), the National Wildlife Federation (NWF) and Arizona State University in Tempe, authored the assessment.

    Nancy Grimm, a scientist at ASU and a lead author of the report said, "These geographic range and timing changes are causing cascading effects that extend through ecosystems, bringing together species that haven't previously interacted and creating mismatches between animals and their food sources." Grimm explained that such mismatches in the availability and timing of natural resources can influence species' survival; for example, if insects emerge well before the arrival of migrating birds that rely on them for food, it can adversely affect bird populations. Earlier thaw and shorter winters can extend growing seasons for insect pests such as bark beetles, having devastating consequences for the way ecosystems are structured and function. This can substantially alter the benefits people derive from ecosystems, such as clean water, wood products and food.

    Amanda Staudt, a NWF climate scientist and a lead author on the report said, "The impact of climate change on ecosystems has important implications for people and communities. Shifting climate conditions are affecting valuable ecosystem services, such as the role that coastal habitats play in dampening storm surge or the ability of our forests to provide timber and help filter our drinking water."

    Another key finding is the mounting evidence that population declines and increased extinction risks for some plant and animal species can be directly attributed to climate change. The most vulnerable species are those already degraded by other human-caused stressors such as pollution or exploitation, unable to shift their geographic range or timing of key life events, or that have narrow environmental or ecological tolerance. For example, species that must live at high altitudes or live in cold water with a narrow temperature range, such as salmon, face an even greater risk due to climate change.

    Michelle Staudinger, a lead author of the report and a USGS and University of Missouri scientist said, "The report clearly indicates that as climate change continues to impact ecological systems, a net loss of global species' diversity, as well as major shifts in the provision of ecosystem services, are quite likely." For example, she added, climate change is already causing shifts in the abundance and geographic range of economically important marine fish. "These changes will almost certainly continue, resulting in some local fisheries declining or disappearing while others may grow and become more valuable if fishing communities can find socially and economically viable ways to adapt to these changes."

    Natural resource managers are already contending with what climate change means for the way they approach conservation. For example, the report indicates that land managers are now more focused on the connectivity of protected habitats, which can improve a species' ability to shift its geographic range to follow optimal conditions for survival. Bruce Stein, a lead author of the report and director of climate adaptation at NWF said, "The conservation community is grappling with how we manage our natural resources in the face of climate change, so that we can help our ecosystems to continue meeting the needs of both people and wildlife." Other key findings of the report include:

• Changes in precipitation and extreme weather events can overwhelm the ability of natural systems to reduce or prevent harm to people from these events. For example, more frequent heavy rainfall events increase the movement of nutrients and pollutants to downstream ecosystems, likely resulting not only in ecosystem change, but also in adverse changes in the quality of drinking water and a greater risk of waterborne-disease outbreaks.  
• Changes in winter have big and surprising effects on ecosystems and their services. Changes in soil freezing, snow cover and air temperature affect the ability of ecosystems to store carbon, which, in turn, influences agricultural and forest production. Seasonally snow-covered regions are especially susceptible to climate change because small precipitation or temperature shifts can cause large ecosystem changes. Longer growing seasons and warmer winters are already increasing the likelihood of pest outbreaks, leading to tree mortality and more intense, extensive fires. Decreased or unreliable snowfall for winter sports and recreation will likely cause high future economic losses.
• The ecosystem services provided by coastal habitats are especially vulnerable to sea-level rise and more severe storms. The Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico coasts are most vulnerable to the loss of coastal protection services provided by wetlands and coral reefs. Along the Pacific coast, long-term dune erosion caused by increasing wave heights is projected to cause problems for communities and for recreational beach activities. However, other kinds of recreation will probably improve due to better weather, with the net effect being that visitors and tourism dollars will shift away from some communities in favor of others.  
• Climate change adaptation strategies are vital for the conservation of diverse species and effective natural resource policy and management. As more adaptive management approaches are developed, resource managers can enhance the country's ability to respond to the impacts of climate change through forward-looking and climate science-informed goals and actions.
• Ecological monitoring needs to be improved and better coordinated among federal and state agencies to ensure the impacts of climate change are adequately monitored and to support ecological research, management, assessment and policy. Existing tracking networks in the United States will need to improve coverage through time and in geographic area to detect and track climate-induced shifts in ecosystems and species.

    Federal law requires that the U.S. Global Change Research Program (USGCRP) submit an assessment of climate change and its impacts to the President and the Congress once every four years. Technical reports, articles and books -- such as this report --underpin the corresponding chapters of the Third U.S. National Climate Assessment, due out in 2013. This technical report is available at the USGCRP website, as are other completed technical reports.

    Access a release from USGS (click here). Access the complete 296-page report (click here). [#Climate, #Wildlife]

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Possible Energy Independence In 10-20 Years With Shale Gas

Dec 10: The National Intelligence Council (NIC) of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI) recently released a report indicating that the world of 2030 will be "radically transformed from our world today." The quadrennial report by the Intelligence Community's top analysts, Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, projects that by 2030 the U.S. most likely will remain "first among equals" among the other great powers, due to the legacy of its leadership role in the world and the dominant role it has played in international politics across the board in both hard and soft power. The replacement of the U.S. by another global power and construction of a new international order is an unlikely outcome in this time period.

    Nevertheless, the report says that with the rapid rise of other countries, the "unipolar moment" is over and no country -- whether the U.S., China, or any other country -- "will be a hegemonic power." In terms of the indices of overall power -- GDP, population size, military spending and technological investment -- Asia will surpass North America and Europe combined.

    The empowerment of individuals, the diffusion of power among states, and from states to informal networks, will have a dramatic impact bringing a growing democratization, at both the international and domestic level. Additionally, it is reported that two other "megatrends" will shape the world out to 2030: Demographic patterns especially rapid aging and growing demands on resources such as food and water, which might lead to scarcities. These trends, which exist today, are projected to gain momentum over the coming 15-20 years.

    The report identifies six "tectonic shifts" -- critical changes to key features of the global environment -- underpinning the megatrends that will affect how the world works. One positive "shift" sees energy independence for the U.S. in as short a period as 10 to 20 years due to abundant quantities of shale gas. This is the second report in recent weeks to discuss U.S. energy independence [See WIMS 11/13/12]. On November 12, the International Energy Agency (IEA) launched the 2012 edition of the World Energy Outlook (WEO) and sais the global energy map is changing in dramatic fashion. That Agency's flagship publication, released in London, said the extraordinary growth in oil and natural gas output in the United States will mean "a sea-change in global energy flows." WEO's central scenario, the United States could become a net exporter of natural gas by 2020, and "almost self-sufficient in energy, in net terms, by 2035."

 

    The ODNI report indicates a more sinister "shift" could be the wider access to lethal and disruptive technologies such as bioterror weapons and cyber instruments, which could offer a means for individuals and small groups to inflict large-scale violence and disruption. The report also outlines six key "game-changers" -- questions regarding the global economy, governance, conflict, regional instability, technology and the role of the U.S. -- which will largely determine what kind of transformed world will be inhabited in 2030. The game-changers include: The Crisis-Prone Global Economy; The Governance Gap; Potential for Increased Conflict; Wider Scope of Regional Instability; The Impact of New Technologies; and The Role of the United States.

    Following the precedent in earlier editions of Global Trends, the current edition sketches out future models for the world out to 2030: "Stalled Engines," "Fusion," "Gini Out-of-the-Bottle," and "Nonstate World." As with previous editions, none of these alternative worlds are inevitable and in reality, the future will probably consist of elements from all the scenarios.  

 

    One of the "Megatrends" analyzed includes the Growing food, water,and energy nexus. The report indicates: "The increasing nexus among food, water, and energy -- in combination with climate change -- will have far-reaching effects on global development over the next 15-20 years. In a tectonic shift, demand for these resources will grow substantially owing to an increase in the global population from 7.1 billion today to 8.3 billion by 2030. As we have discussed, an expanding middle class and swelling urban populations will increase pressures on critical resources -- particularly food and water -- but new technologies -- such as 'vertical' farming in high-rise structures which also reduce transportation costs -- could help expand needed resources. Food and water security is being aggravated by changing weather conditions outside of expected norms. We are not necessarily headed into a world of scarcities, but policymakers and their private sector partners will need to be proactive to avoid scarcities in the future. . ."

    The NIC publishes a new edition of Global Trends every four years, in a presidential election year, to assist the next -- in this case the returning -- administration in its strategic review. This is the fifth edition of Global Trends beginning with "Global Trends 2010." As with previous reports, it does not seek to predict the future, but instead provides a framework for thinking about possible futures -- assessing key trends and their implications.  

    Global Trends 2030 has been the largest collaborative effort of all the editions relying on a diversity of perspectives to enrich the work. The NIC held many meetings with government officials, businesses, universities and think tanks and reached out to experts in 20 countries. One benefit has been growing interest elsewhere in global trends: Several governments and organizations now prepare similar reports, helping to inform the NIC's work.

    Access a release from NIC (click here). Access the complete 160-page report (click here). Access an overview and link to the report in various formats and previous issues (click here). [#Energy, #Water]

 

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