World Headed Toward 4°C Warming & Cataclysmic Changes

Nov 18: A new scientific report released today that was commissioned by the World Bank indicates that, "The world is barreling down a path to heat up by 4 degrees at the end of the century if the global community fails to act on climate change, triggering a cascade of cataclysmic changes that include extreme heat-waves, declining global food stocks and a sea-level rise affecting hundreds of millions of people. All regions of the world would suffer -- some more than others -- but the report finds that the poor will suffer the most.

    A snapshot of the latest climate science prepared for the World Bank by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) and Climate Analytics, says that the world is on a path to a 4 degree Celsius (4°C) warmer world by end of this century and current greenhouse gas emissions pledges will not reduce this by much. World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim said, "A 4 degree warmer world can, and must be, avoided -- we need to hold warming below 2 degrees. Lack of action on climate change threatens to make the world our children inherit a completely different world than we are living in today. Climate change is one of the single biggest challenges facing development, and we need to assume the moral responsibility to take action on behalf of future generations, especially the poorest."

    The report says that the 4°C scenarios are potentially devastating: the inundation of coastal cities; increasing risks for food production potentially leading to higher under and malnutrition rates; many dry regions becoming dryer, wet regions wetter; unprecedented heat waves in many regions, especially in the tropics; substantially exacerbated water scarcity in many regions; increased intensity of tropical cyclones; and irreversible loss of biodiversity, including coral reef systems.

    PIK Director, John Schellnhuber said, "The Earth system's responses to climate change appear to be non-linear. If we venture far beyond the 2 degrees guardrail, towards the 4 degrees line, the risk of crossing tipping points rises sharply. The only way to avoid this is to break the business-as-usual pattern of production and consumption."

    The report notes, however, that a 4°C world is not inevitable and that with sustained policy action warming can still be held below 2°C, which is the goal adopted by the international community and one that already brings some serious damages and risks to the environment and human populations. Kim said, "The world must tackle the problem of climate change more aggressively. Greater adaptation and mitigation efforts are essential and solutions exist. We need a global response equal to the scale of the climate problem, a response that puts us on a new path of climate smart development and shared prosperity. But time is very short."

    The World Bank Group's work on inclusive green growth has found that with more efficient and smarter use of energy and natural resources opportunities exist to drastically reduce the climate impact of development without slowing poverty alleviation or economic growth. Rachel Kyte, World Bank Vice President for Sustainable Development said, "While every country will take a different pathway to greener growth and balance their own need for energy access with energy sustainability, every country has green growth opportunities to exploit."

    According to the report, those initiatives could include: putting the more than $1 trillion (US) of fossil fuel and other harmful subsidies to better use; introducing natural capital accounting into national accounts; expanding both public and private expenditures on green infrastructure able to withstand extreme weather and urban public transport systems designed to minimize carbon emission and maximize access to jobs and services; supporting carbon pricing and international and national emissions trading schemes; and increasing energy efficiency -- especially in buildings -- and the share of renewable power produced. Kyte said, "This report reinforces the reality that today's climate volatility affects everything we do. We will redouble our efforts to build adaptive capacity and resilience, as well as find solutions to the climate challenge." 

    The report, Turn Down The Heat: Why a 4°C Warmer World Must Be Avoided -- summarizes a range of the direct and indirect climatic consequences under the current global path for greenhouse gas emissions. Key findings include:

• Extreme heat waves, that without global warming would be expected to occur once in several hundred years, will be experienced during almost all summer months in many regions.  The effects would not be evenly distributed.  The largest warming  would be expected to occur over land and range from 4° C to 10° C. Increases of 6° C or more in average monthly summer temperatures would be expected in the Mediterranean, North Africa, Middle East and parts of the United States.
• Sea level-rise by 0.5 to 1 meter by 2100 is likely, with higher levels also possible. Some of the most highly vulnerable cities are located in Mozambique, Madagascar, Mexico, Venezuela, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam.
• The most vulnerable regions are in the tropics, sub-tropics and towards the poles, where multiple impacts are likely to come together.
• Agriculture, water resources, human health, biodiversity and ecosystem services are likely to be severely impacted.  This could lead to large-scale displacement of populations and consequences for human security and economic and trade systems.
• Many small islands may not be able to sustain their populations.  

    The report states that the science is unequivocal that humans are the cause of global warming, and major changes are already being observed. The global mean temperature has continued to increase and is now about 0.8°C above pre-industrial levels. While a global warming of 0.8°C may not seem large, the report notes that many climate change impacts have already started to emerge, and the shift from 0.8°C to 2.0°C warming or beyond will pose much larger challenges. But a global mean temperature increase of 4°C approaches the known historic level of change for the planet, which harks back to the last ice age when much of central Europe and the northern United States were covered with kilometers of ice and global mean temperatures were about 4.5°C  to 7°C lower. And this contemporary human-induced climate change, the report notes, is occurring over a century, not millennia.

    The World Bank is helping 130 countries take action on climate change. Last year, it doubled its financial lending that contributes to adaptation. The Bank-administered US$7.2 billion Climate Investment Funds are now operating in 48 countries, leveraging an additional US$43 billion in clean investment. Increasingly, the Bank is supporting action on the ground to finance the kind of projects that help the poor grow their way out of poverty, increase their resilience to climate change, and achieve emissions reductions.

    Access a release from UNEP (click here). Access a lengthy release from the World Bank with links to related information (click here). Access the complete 106-page report (click here). [#Climate]

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Reactions To BP Criminal Settlement; & New Explosion

Nov 15: A number of Federal legislators and organizations have responded to the Department of Justice (DOJ) announcement of the $4.5 billion criminal settlement agreement with BP on the tragic Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico over two years ago [See WIMS 11/15/12]. The following are some of the reactions:

Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA), the Ranking Member on the House Natural Resources Committee said, "Eleven Americans died. Then BP lied to the American people. And then they tried to cover it up. BP deserves this record-breaking penalty. The Obama administration and the Department of Justice have held BP to the highest level of accountability that the law allows, including for their lies to Congress. Now it is up to Congress to enact laws that raise both the safety standards for offshore drilling and the liability cap for companies that still spill.
    "Two years after the worst environmental disaster in America's history ended, oil is still being dredged up by storms and recently leaked from wreckage at the bottom of the Gulf. This settlement may have closed a chapter of this disaster with the government, but we still have a responsibility to monitor the lingering effects from the spill and put in place new laws that reduce the likelihood of such a catastrophe occurring ever again."

 

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA), the Chair of the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee said, "I commend the Department of Justice for holding BP criminally accountable for its actions related to the Deepwater Horizon disaster - the largest environmental catastrophe in U.S. history. Eleven lives were lost and untold damage was done to the Gulf Coast region, and then BP lied to the American people and Congress to cover up the enormous amount of oil that was spilling into the ocean. It is entirely fitting that the company will pay a record $4.5 billion in criminal fines and penalties, and I strongly encourage BP to quickly and responsibly resolve the civil claims that are still pending."

Environmental Defense Fund (EDF), President Fred Krupp said, "Today's settlement is the largest penalty ever paid in a criminal case, and we applaud the Department of Justice for pursuing unprecedented fines and for allocating a huge portion of funds to restoration in the Mississippi River Delta and Gulf of Mexico. In Louisiana, restoration projects are expected to include large-scale river diversions, which EDF strongly supports. It is deeply gratifying to see the Justice Department stand firmly on the side of the citizens and environment of the Gulf Coast. We look forward to working with the National Fish & Wildlife Foundation to get large-scale restoration projects going along the Gulf Coast and in the Mississippi River Delta."

    "The full magnitude of environmental damages in the Gulf will not be known for years, but we do know that the spill's effects continue to unfold. Therefore, it's essential that BP be held accountable to the fullest extent of the law. BP broke two major laws that have two very important purposes, and they should pay for violating both. The Gulf Coast depends on full justice being served. This settlement raises our expectations that the Department of Justice will continue to hold BP fully accountable for its civil violations under both the Clean Water Act and the Oil Pollution Act."

 

Center for Biological Diversity (CBD), Attorney Marc Fink said, "These penalties don't close the book on this disaster. We continue our fight for full accountability from BP and environmental justice for the Gulf of Mexico region. As we have said from the very beginning, BP should be fully responsible for the complete restoration of the Gulf, and still must publicly disclose all toxic components that spewed into the Gulf during the spill. The BP spill was the worst environmental disaster in U.S. history and yet, deepwater drilling in the Gulf of Mexico has largely returned to business as usual. If we didn't learn a lesson from the nation's largest ever environmental disaster, it's hard to know what it will take." CBD notes: "The settlement does not address BP's liability for civil penalties under the Clean Water Act, which under the Act could be well over $20 billion. In June 2010, CBD brought a citizen suit against BP seeking the maximum amount of civil penalties under the Clean Water Act and federal right-to-know statutes. A hearing is scheduled before the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 5th Circuit on Dec. 4 in New Orleans."

 

Oceana, deputy vice president Jacqueline Savitz said, "Oceana is pleased that BP is admitting it played a criminal role in the worst environmental disaster in U.S. history, and that the government is trying to hold BP accountable for its negligence. By rights, this settlement should be just a first step. BP still owes Americans tens of billions of dollars more, possibly as much as $90 billion according to our analysis, including $20 billion under the Clean Water Act, an estimated $30 billion for natural resource damages and additional compensation for economic damages to the fishing and tourism industries. (Other estimates suggest the figure could be twice as large.). . ."

National Wildlife Federation (NWF), president and CEO Larry Schweiger said, "This is a good down payment on the massive restoration needed for the Gulf's ecosystems and the people and communities that depend on them. There's still a lot of work to be done when it comes to penalizing the parties responsible for the Gulf oil disaster through the civil provisions of the Oil Pollution Act and the Clean Water Act, but this criminal settlement marks important progress and devotes much-needed resources toward restoration. We look forward to working toward a full settlement that will not only hold BP and all other parties responsible for the devastation of the Gulf oil disaster, but deter future violations by sending a clear message that America holds reckless polluters fully accountable."

Note: As this article was being prepared (11:00 AM ET, November 16) the Coast Guard indicated breaking news that there was an explosion and a fire on an oil platform in the Gulf of Mexico. Reportedly, four persons were air-lifeted to hospitals and early reports indicated two persons may be missing and/or dead.The location was approximately 29 miles off the coast of Louisiana and it was not a deepwell drilling oil rig. More on this as details become available.

 

    At around 1 PM, Rep. Ed Markey issued a statement on the Gulf platform fire and said, "The Coast Guard and the Department of Interior have informed my committee staff that the fire is out, and they are responding to aid the victims. The fire on the Black Elk Energy rig reportedly occurred when construction crews cut through a line with a torch. The shallow-water platform had shut in all wells before the incident. There are conflicting reports about whether there is pollution in the water, and what exactly the source of the pollution is.

    "This incident raises a number of questions about the nature and adequacy of safety measures on this offshore rig, and I will be asking Black Elk, the Department of Interior and the Coast Guard for full reports on this latest tragedy. This is yet another reminder that our work on oil drilling safety is not complete. The Obama administration has taken important steps to increase safety standards for blowout preventers, well design and construction in offshore drilling. Congress still needs to pass legislation that codifies the actions taken by the Obama administration, increases penalties and liabilities for companies that spill and ensures that the agencies charged with overseeing offshore oil drilling have the resources they need to protect workers and the environment."

    Other reports indicate that there were 22 people on board at the time of the explosion, according to the Coast Guard. Two missing persons are feared dead.Eleven crew members were flown to hospitals, and four of them are listed in critical condition. No one has been confirmed dead.

    Access the statement from Rep. Markey (click here). Access the statement from Sen. Boxer (click here). Access the statement from EDF (click here). Access the statement from CBD (click here). Access the statement from Oceana (click here). Access the statement from NWF (click here). Access a statement from Rep. Markey on today's explosion (click here). Access a video and report from ABC news (click here). Access an NBC news and video (click here). [#Energy/OilSpill]

 

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$4.5 Billion Criminal Settlement Agreement With BP Announced

Nov 15: Attorney General Eric Holder at a press conference in New Orleans indicated that, "Today, in U.S. District Court here in the Eastern District of Louisiana, the Department filed a 14-count information charging BP with 11 counts of felony manslaughter, one count of felony obstruction of Congress, and violations of the Clean Water and Migratory Bird Treaty Acts in connection with the Deepwater Horizon oil spill that began in April 2010. BP has agreed to plead guilty to all 14 criminal charges -- admitting responsibility for the deaths of 11 people and the events that led to an unprecedented environmental catastrophe. The company also has agreed to pay $4 billion in fines and penalties."

 

    He said, "This marks both the single largest criminal fine – more than $1.25 billion – and the single largest total criminal resolution – $4 billion – in the history of the United States." Further he stated, ". . .in addition to the charges filed against BP, a federal grand jury returned an indictment charging the two highest-ranking BP supervisors who were on board the Deepwater Horizon on the day of the explosion with 23 criminal counts -- including 11 counts of seaman's manslaughter, 11 counts of involuntary manslaughter, and alleged violations of the Clean Water Act. The grand jury also charged a former BP executive -- who served as a deputy incident commander and BP's second-highest ranking representative at Unified Command during the spill response -- with hiding information from Congress and allegedly lying to law enforcement officials.

 

    "These and other matters remain open, including a separate civil action that's pending in federal court here in New Orleans.   We're looking forward to the trial -- which is scheduled to begin in February of next year -- in which we intend to prove that BP was grossly negligent in causing the oil spill. In that lawsuit, we are seeking civil penalties and a judgment that BP and others are liable for removal costs and natural resource damages -- exposure that could amount to billions of dollars. Though we have been unable to date to resolve the civil case, we remain as determined as ever to hold those responsible accountable. In addition, my colleagues and I are firmly committed to combating oil-spill fraud by investigating and prosecuting those who attempt to reap criminal profits from such a terrible tragedy. . ."

 

    BP also announced that it had reached agreement with the United States government, subject to court approval, to resolve all Federal criminal charges and all claims by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) against the company stemming from the Deepwater Horizon accident, oil spill, and response. BP summarized the key items in the agreement as follows:

• Resolution of all criminal claims with Department of Justice includes $4 billion paid in installments over a period of five years
• Resolution of all securities claims with Securities and Exchange Commission includes $525 million paid in installments over a period of three years
• Existing $38.1 billion charge against income to increase by approximately $3.85 billion
• BP is prepared to vigorously defend itself against remaining civil claims

    Bob Dudley, BP's Group Chief Executive said, "All of us at BP deeply regret the tragic loss of life caused by the Deepwater Horizon accident as well as the impact of the spill on the Gulf coast region. From the outset, we stepped up by responding to the spill, paying legitimate claims and funding restoration efforts in the Gulf. We apologize for our role in the accident, and as today's resolution with the U.S. government further reflects, we have accepted responsibility for our actions."

    In eliminating the possibility of any further Federal criminal charges against the company based on the accident, BP has taken another significant step forward in removing legal uncertainty and can now focus more fully on defending itself against all remaining civil claims. Carl-Henric Svanberg, BP's Chairman said, "We believe this resolution is in the best interest of BP and its shareholders. It removes two significant legal risks and allows us to vigorously defend the company against the remaining civil claims."

 

    Further information released by BP indicates that as part of the resolution, BP has agreed to plead guilty to 11 felony counts of Misconduct or Neglect of Ships Officers relating to the loss of 11 lives; one misdemeanor count under the Clean Water Act; one misdemeanor count under the Migratory Bird Treaty Act; and one felony count of obstruction of Congress. This resolution is subject to U.S. federal court approval.

    Thirteen of the 14 criminal charges pertain to the accident itself and are based on the negligent misinterpretation of the negative pressure test conducted on board the Deepwater Horizon. BP acknowledged this misinterpretation more than two years ago when it released its internal investigation report. Today's agreement is consistent with BP's position in the ongoing civil litigation that this was an accident resulting from multiple causes, involving multiple parties, as found by other official investigations. The remaining criminal count pertains to two BP communications made to a member of Congress during the spill response about flow rate estimates. As part of its resolution of criminal claims with the U.S. government, BP will pay $4 billion, including $1.256 billion in criminal fines, in installments over a period of five years. BP has also agreed to a term of five years' probation.

    Under the resolution with the Department of Justice (DOJ), a total of $2.394 billion will be paid to the National Fish & Wildlife Foundation (NFWF) over a period of five years. In addition, $350 million will be paid to the National Academy of Sciences (NAS) over a period of five years.

 

    Access a release from the Attorney General (click here). Access a lengthy summary of the agreement released by BP (click here). Access additional information from BP on the agreement and related matters (click here). [#Energy/OilSpill]

 

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President Says More In Coming Months & Years On Climate Change

Nov 14: President Obama held his first press conference since being re-elected and was asked what he plans to do in his second term regarding climate change. Specifically, the question stated, "In his endorsement of you a few weeks ago, Mayor Bloomberg said he was motivated by the belief that you would do more to confront the threat of climate change than your opponent. Tomorrow you're going up to -- to New York City, where you're going to, I assume, see people who are still suffering the effects of Hurricane Sandy, which many people say is further evidence of -- of how a -- a warming globe is changing our weather. What specifically do you plan to do in a second term to tackle the issue of climate change? And do you think the political will exists in Washington to pass legislation that could include some kind of attacks on carbon?  The President responded:

"You know. . .we can't attribute any particular weather event to climate change.

"What we do know is the temperature around the globe is increasing. Faster than was predicted even ten years ago. We do know that the Arctic ice cap is melting, faster than was predicted even five years ago. We do know that there have been extraordinarily -- there -- there have been an extraordinarily large number of severe weather events here in North America, but also around the globe.

"And I am a firm believer that climate change is real. That it is impacted by human behavior, and carbon emissions. And as a consequence, I think we've got an obligation to future generations to do something about it.

"Now, in my first term, we doubled fuel efficiency standards on cars and trucks. That will have an impact. That will take a lot of carbon out of the atmosphere. We doubled the production of clean energy, which promises to reduce the utilization of fossil fuels for power generation. And we continue to invest in potential breakthrough technologies that could further remove carbon from our atmosphere.

"But we haven't done as much as we need to. So, what I'm going to be doing over the next several weeks -- next several months is having a conversation, a wide-ranging conversation with scientists, engineers, and elected officials to find out what can -- what more can we do to make short-term progress in reducing carbons, and then, you know, working through an education process that I think is necessary -- a discussion, a conversation across the country about, you know, what realistically can we do long term to make sure that this is not something we're passing on to future generations that's going to be very expensive and very painful to deal with.

"I don't know what -- what either Democrats or Republicans are prepared to do at this point, because, you know, this is one of those issues that's not just a partisan also. I also think there's -- there are regional differences. There's no doubt that for us to take on climate change in a serious way would involve making some tough political choices. And, you know, understandably, I think the American people right now have been so focused, and will continue to be focused on our economy and jobs and growth that, you know, if the message is somehow we're going to ignore jobs and growth simply to address climate change, I don't think anybody's gonna go for that. I won't go for that.

"If on the other hand we can shape an agenda that says we can create jobs, advance growth, and make a serious dent in climate change and be an international leader, I think that's something that the American people would support.

"So, you know, you can expect that you'll hear more from me in the coming months and years about how we can shape an agenda that garners bipartisan support and helps moves this -- moves this agenda forward."

    Access the full text of the President's press conference and a video from the (click here). Access the full text of the President's press conference and a video from the White House (click here, posted soon). [#Climate]

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IEA Predicts U.S. Almost Self-Sufficient In Energy By 2035

Nov 12: The global energy map is changing in dramatic fashion, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said as it launched the 2012 edition of the World Energy Outlook (WEO). The Agency's flagship publication, released in London, said the changes will recast expectations about the role of different countries, regions and fuels in the global energy system over the coming decades.

    IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven said, "North America is at the forefront of a sweeping transformation in oil and gas production that will affect all regions of the world, yet the potential also exists for a similarly transformative shift in global energy efficiency. This year's World Energy Outlook shows that by 2035, we can achieve energy savings equivalent to nearly a fifth of global demand in 2010. In other words, energy efficiency is just as important as unconstrained energy supply, and increased action on efficiency can serve as a unifying energy policy that brings multiple benefits."

    WEO finds that the extraordinary growth in oil and natural gas output in the United States will mean "a sea-change in global energy flows." In the New Policies Scenario, the WEO's central scenario, the United States becomes a net exporter of natural gas by 2020, and is almost self-sufficient in energy, in net terms, by 2035. North America emerges as a net oil exporter, accelerating the switch in direction of international oil trade, with almost 90% of Middle Eastern oil exports being drawn to Asia by 2035. Links between regional gas markets will strengthen as liquefied natural gas trade becomes more flexible and contract terms evolve. While regional dynamics change, global energy demand will push ever higher, growing by more than one-third to 2035. China, India and the Middle East account for 60% of the growth; demand barely rises in the OECD, but there is a pronounced shift towards gas and renewables.

    Fossil fuels will remain dominant in the global energy mix, supported by subsidies that, in 2011, jumped by almost 30% to $523 billion, due mainly to increases in the Middle East and North Africa. Global oil demand grows by 7 mb/d to 2020 and exceeds 99 mb/d in 2035, by which time oil prices reach $125/barrel in real terms (over $215/barrel in nominal terms). A surge in unconventional and deepwater oil boosts non-OPEC supply over the current decade, but the world relies increasingly on OPEC after 2020. Iraq accounts for 45% of the growth in global oil production to 2035 and becomes the second-largest global oil exporter, overtaking Russia.

    While the regional picture for natural gas varies, the global outlook over the coming decades looks to be bright, as demand increases by 50% to 5 trillion cubic metres in 2035. Nearly half of the increase in production to 2035 is from unconventional gas, with most of this coming from the United States, Australia and China. Whether demand for coal carries on rising strongly or changes course radically will depend on the strength of policy decisions around lower-emissions energy sources and changes in the price of coal relative to natural gas. In the New Policies Scenario, global coal demand increases by 21% and is heavily focused in China and India.

    Renewables become the world's second-largest source of power generation by 2015 and close in on coal as the primary source by 2035. However, this rapid increase hinges critically on continued subsidies. In 2011, these subsidies (including for biofuels) amounted to $88 billion, but over the period to 2035 need to amount to $4.8 trillion; over half of this has already been committed to existing projects or is needed to meet 2020 targets. Ambitions for nuclear have been scaled back as countries have reviewed policies following the accident at Fukushima Daiichi, but capacity is still projected to rise, led by China, Korea, India and Russia.

 

   Water is essential to the production of energy, and the energy sector already accounts for 15% of the world's total water use. Its needs are set to grow, making water an increasingly important criterion for assessing the viability of energy projects. In some regions, water constraints are already affecting the reliability of existing operations and they will introduce additional costs. Expanding power generation and biofuels output underpin an 85% increase in the amount consumed (the volume of water that is not returned to its source after use) through to 2035.

    Fatih Birol, IEA Chief Economist and the WEO's lead author said, "Our analysis shows that in the absence of a concerted policy push, two-thirds of the economically viable potential to improve energy efficiency will remain unrealized through to 2035. Action to improve energy efficiency could delay the complete 'lock-in' of the allowable emissions of carbon dioxide under a 2oC trajectory -- which is currently set to happen in 2017 -- until 2022, buying time to secure a much-needed global climate agreement. It would also bring substantial energy security and economic benefits, including cutting fuel bills by 20% on average."

    WEO-2012 also presents the results of an Efficient World Scenario, which shows what energy efficiency improvements can be achieved simply by adopting measures that are justified in economic terms. Greater efforts on energy efficiency would cut the growth in global energy demand by half. Global oil demand would peak before 2020 and be almost 13 mb/d lower by 2035, a reduction equal to the current production of Russia and Norway combined. The accrued resources would facilitate a gradual reorientation of the global economy, boosting cumulative economic output to 2035 by $18 trillion, with the biggest gains in India, China, the United States and Europe.

 

    The American Chemistry Council (ACC) issued a release lauding the new IEA projections. Cal Dooley, president and CEO of the ACC said, "Today's IEA World Energy Outlook 2012 reiterates the importance of capitalizing on vast new supplies of natural gas from shale formations in the United States to meet our future energy demands and to fuel a resurgence in American manufacturing." He said further, "The IEA projections, which come after a recent analysis by IHS CERA that also showed increasing domestic natural gas production, underscore the importance of sound regulatory policies at the state level that will determine whether natural gas from shale remains a 'game changer' for America's energy security and for our manufacturing sector or a sorely missed opportunity to generate economic growth and jobs."

    Dooley indicated that chemical manufacturers have already announced 50 new chemical projects to take advantage of new supplies of natural gas and expand their production. A recent ACC study found that the expected increase in natural gas production is not just revitalizing the chemical industry but could create 1.2 million new jobs across a broad sector of America's manufacturing base.   

    The American Petroleum Institute (API) Chief Economist John Felmy also commented on the IEA report saying, "Today's IEA announcement affirms that the United States can use its ample supply of oil and natural gas to be a world leader on energy. This opportunity is driven by American ingenuity that has advanced technologies to safely develop energy from shale. The shale revolution in America is just beginning. We have an unprecedented opportunity to create millions of new jobs and generate hundreds of billions of dollars for our government. With the right public policies and government leadership, this could be a game changer for the United States and the global energy landscape.

    "In order to move forward with this remarkable opportunity, we must avoid public policies that raise taxes, impose burdensome and unnecessary regulations, or pit one energy source against another. The administration must acknowledge the effective role states are already playing in regulating oil and natural gas production and avoid the temptation to impose unnecessary and duplicative federal regulations on hydraulic fracturing. By following through on his own executive order to eliminate overly burdensome regulations, President Obama can rein in plans to impose regulatory burdens that could cost businesses hundreds of billions of dollars and chill economic growth."

    Access a release from IEA (click here). Access a 12-page executive summary (click here). Access links to fact sheets, videos, presentation, Q&As, and related information (click here). Access information on purchasing the complete 690-page report in paper, pdf, CD (click here). Access a release from ACC with links to related information including the IHS and ACC reports (click here). Access the API statement (click here). [#Energy]

 

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Obama On The Fiscal Cliff: "We Can't Just Cut Our Way To Prosperity"

Nov 9: In a relatively brief statement at the White House President Obama laid out his general strategy to address the serious problem of the "Fiscal Cliff" which must be address before the end of the year [See WIMS 11/8/12]. Significantly, he said he would not back down on his commitment not to raise taxes of 98% of households and 97% of small businesses, which would increase substantially at the end of the year if the "Bush tax cuts" are allowed to expire. He also said that those making over $250,000 should be paying more to address the deficit issue and invest in programs to move the country forward. And, he seemed to leave the door open on how revenues could be increased for those making over $250,000, but he said Congress can act immediately to extend the tax cuts for those making under $250,000 and end their uncertainty now. Specifically, the President said:

"As I said on Tuesday night, the American people voted for action not politics as usual. You elected us to focus on your jobs, not ours. And in that spirit I've invited leaders of both parties to the White House next week so we can start to build consensus around the challenges that we can only solve together. And I also intend to bring in business and labor and civic leaders from all across the country here to Washington to get their ideas and input, as well. You know, at a time when our economy's still recovering from the great recession, our top priority has to be jobs and growth. That's the focus of the plan that I talked about during the campaign.

"It's a plan that rewards small businesses and manufacturers that create jobs here and not overseas. It's a plan to give people the chance to get the education and training that businesses are looking for right now. It's a plan to make sure this country is a global leader in research and technology and clean energy, which will attract new companies and highways jobs to America. It's a plan to put folks back to work, including our veterans, rebuilding our roads and our bridges and other infrastructure. And it's a plan to reduce our deficit in a balanced and responsible way.

"Our work is made that much more urgent because at the end of this year we face a series of deadlines that require us to make major decisions about how to pay our deficit down, decisions that will have a huge impact on both the economy and the middle class, both now and in the future. Last year, I worked with Democrats and Republicans to cut a trillion dollars worth of spending that we just couldn't afford. I intend to work with both parties to do more, and that includes making reforms that will bring down the cost of health care, so we can strengthen programs like Medicaid and Medicare for the long haul, but, as I've said before, we can't just cut our way to prosperity.

"If we're serious about reducing the deficit, we have to combine spending cuts with revenue. And that means asking the wealthiest Americans to pay a little more in taxes. That's how we did it. That's how we did it in the 1990s, when Bill Clinton was president. That's how we can reduce the deficit while still making the investments we need to build a strong middle class, and a strong economy. That's the only way we can still afford to train our workers, or help our kids pay for college, or make sure that good jobs and clean energy or high tech manufacturing don't end up in countries like China.

"Now, already I've put forward a detailed plan, that allows us to make these investments while reducing our deficit by $4 trillion over the next decade. I want to be clear, I'm not wedded to every detail of my plan. I'm open to compromise. I'm open to new ideas. I'm committed to solving our fiscal challenges, but I refuse to accept any approach that isn't balanced. I'm not gonna ask students and seniors and middle class families to pay down the entire deficit, while people like me making over $250,000 aren't asked to pay a dime more in taxes. I'm not going to do that.

"And I just want to point out, this was a central question during the election. It was debated over and over again. And on Tuesday night we found out that the majority of Americans agree with my approach. And that includes Democrats, independents and a lot of Republicans across the country, as well as independent economists and budget experts. That's how you reduce the deficit, with a balanced approach. So our job now is to get a majority in Congress to reflect the will of the American people. I believe we can get that majority. I was encouraged to hear Speaker Boehner agree that tax revenue has to be part of this equation. So I look forward to hearing his ideas when I see him next week.

"And let me make one final point that every American needs to hear right now. If Congress fails to come to an agreement on an overall deficit-reduction package by the end of the year, everybody's taxes will automatically go up on January 1st -- everybody's -- including the 98 percent of Americans who make less than $250,000 a year. And that makes no sense. It would be bad for the economy and would hit families that are already struggling to make ends meet.

"Now, fortunately, we shouldn't need long negotiations or drama to solve that part of the problem. While there may be disagreement in Congress over whether or not to raise taxes on folks making over $250,000 a year, nobody -- not Republicans, not Democrats -- want taxes to go up for folks making under $250,000 a year. So let's not wait. Even as we're negotiating a broader deficit reduction package, let's extend the middle class tax cuts right now. Let's do that right now.

"That one step -- that one step would give millions of families, 98 percent of Americans and 97 percent of small businesses, the certainty that they need going into the new year. It would immediately take a huge chunk of the economic uncertainty off the table. And that will lead to new jobs and faster growth. Business will know that consumers, they're not gonna see a big tax increase. They will know that most small businesses won't see a tax increase. And so a lot of the uncertainty that you're reading about that will be removed. In fact, the Senate has already passed a bill doing exactly this. So all we need is action from the House. Now, I've got the pen. Ready to sign the bill right away. I'm ready to do it. I'm ready to do it.

"You know, the American people understand that we're gonna have difference and disagreements in the months to come. They get that. But on Tuesday they said loud and clear that they won't tolerate dysfunction, they won't tolerate politicians who view compromise as a dirty word -- not when so many Americans are still out of work, not when so many families and small-business owners are still struggling to pay the bills. What the American people are looking for is cooperation. They're looking for a consensus. They're looking for common sense. Most of all, they want action. I intend to deliver for them in my second term. And I expect to find willing partners in both parties to make that happen. So let's get to work."

    Yesterday, the ... issued a report entitled, Economic Effects of Policies Contributing to Fiscal Tightening in 2013. CBO indicated that, "Substantial changes to tax and spending policies are scheduled to take effect in January 2013, significantly

reducing the federal budget deficit. According to the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO's) projections, if all of that fiscal tightening occurs, real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) will drop by 0.5 percent in 2013 (as measured by the change from the fourth quarter of 2012 to the fourth quarter of 2013) -- reflecting a decline in the first half of the year and renewed growth at a modest pace later in the year. That contraction of the economy will cause employment to decline and the unemployment rate to rise to 9.1 percent in the fourth quarter of 2013. After next year, by the agency's estimates, economic growth will pick up, and the labor market will strengthen, returning output to its potential level (reflecting a high rate of use of labor and capital) and shrinking the unemployment rate to 5.5 percent by 2018."

 

    Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) issued a brief response to the President's statement saying, "I was glad to hear the President's focus on jobs and growth and his call for consensus. But there is no consensus on raising tax rates, which would undermine the jobs and growth we all believe are important to our economy. While I appreciate and share the President's desire to put the election behind us, the fact is we still have yet to hear an actual plan from the President for addressing the great economic challenges we face. What's needed now is a realistic and specific proposal from the President that can actually pass the Congress.

    "For the last two years, the President avoided outlining these kinds of realistic solutions. Now that the election is over, the American people expect a plan that reduces spending, reforms the entitlement system, and puts us on a path to ending our chronic annual deficits -- without harming an already fragile economy. While the Speaker and Republicans in Congress have sought common ground by calling for pro-growth tax reform without raising tax rates, we have yet to hear from Democrats on spending and entitlement reform. Every one of us wants to help the American people by helping the economy grow, and Republicans are eager to hear the President's proposals on this and many other pressing issues going forward. The President has a duty to lead. We implore him again to do so."

    Earlier in the day, before the President's statement, House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) issued a statement saying in part, "The members of our majority understand how important it is to avert the fiscal cliff. That's why the House took action earlier this year to replace the 'sequester' with other types of cuts. And it's also why over the summer we passed a bill to extend all the current tax rates for one year so that we had time to overhaul our tax code. And it is why I outlined a responsible path forward, where we can replace the spending cuts and extend the current rates, paving the way for entitlement reform as well as tax reform with lower tax rates.

    "2013 should be the year we begin to solve our debt through tax reform and entitlement reform. I'm proposing that we avert the fiscal cliff together in a manner that ensures that 2013 is finally the year that our government comes to grips with the major problems that are facing us. This will bring jobs home, result in a stronger, healthier economy. And a stronger, healthier economy means more Americans working and more revenues – which is what the president is seeking."

    Access the full text of the President's speech (click here). Access the CBO report (click here). Access the statement from Sen. McConnell (click here). Access the statement and video from Speaker Boehner (click here). [#All]

Parties Still Far Apart On "Fiscal Cliff" Issues

Nov 7: Now that the election is in the past, the President and Congress must quickly address the so-called "fiscal cliff" issue. The "fiscal cliff" refers to a large predicted reduction in the budget deficit and a corresponding projected slowdown of the economy if specific laws are allowed to automatically expire or go into effect at the beginning of 2013. The laws include tax increases due to the expiration of the Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance Reauthorization, and Job Creation Act of 2010 (the former Bush tax cuts) and the severe spending reductions ("sequestrations") under the Budget Control Act of 2011, negotiated as part of a political deal between Democrats and Republicans and signed by the President to address the budget deficit. The extreme spending reductions will deal a serious blow to environmental, conservation and energy programs.

 

    The National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) recently released a report [See WIMS 10/26/12], Fiscal Shock: America's Economic Crisis, that shows that the United States is already struggling due to Washington's failure to address the pending fiscal cliff. The report indicates that there will be a 0.6 percent loss in GDP growth by the end of 2012. The NAM report warns that, the Congress fails to act, there will be significant harm from to the economy due to massive tax increases and sequestration cuts will over the next three years. They say the results will include the following: More than 6 million jobs lost; Unemployment rate of more than 11 percent; A cumulative 12.8 percent drop in GDP; 10 percent loss in household income; and A recession in 2013 and dramatically slowed growth in 2014.

 

    With such severe consequences hanging in the balance the President has indicated that he wants to sit down with Governor Romney to talk about where we can work together to move this country forward and is "looking forward to reaching out and working with leaders of both parties to meet the challenges we can only solve together: reducing our deficit; reforming our tax code. . ." However, just a few days ago, at a campaign event in Colorado the President said:

[referring to President Bill Clinton term of office] ". . .And his economic plan asked the wealthiest Americans to pay a little bit more so we could reduce our deficit and invest in the skills and ideas of our people. And at the time, you may be surprised to learn that the Republican Congress -- and a Senate candidate by the name of Mitt Romney -- said Bill Clinton's plan would kill jobs, kill the economy. Turns out their math back then was just as bad as it is now. Because by the end of President Clinton's second term, America had created 23 million new jobs. Incomes were up; poverty was down. Our deficit had become a surplus. . .

". . .we know our ideas work because they've been tested, they've been tried.  And we also know that the other folks' ideas don't work because they've been tested. Now, after Bill Clinton left office, for most of the last decade, we tried giving big tax cuts to the wealthiest Americans that we couldn't afford. We tried giving insurance companies and oil companies and Wall Street the license to do whatever they pleased. And what we got was falling incomes, and record deficits, and the slowest job growth in half a century, and an economic crisis that we've been cleaning up after ever since. . . So we've got ideas that work; we've got ideas that don't. We've tried both. We should be able to make a pretty clear choice. . ."

    Yesterday, House Speaker John Boehner (R-OH) delivered a carefully worded statement which many political pundits have characterized as "conciliatory," and presenting a new effort toward finding bipartisan solutions to the nations fiscal problems. However, a careful reading of the statement indicates he is suggesting the same Republican solution that the President has been campaigning against, and saying he would not accept in the future. Speaker Boehner said, Republicans are "willing to accept new revenue, under the right conditions." Then he outlines the conditions saying:

"There will be many who say that with the election over, we should confront the first of these challenges by simply letting the top two tax rates expire, and pushing the sequester off to a later date. . . And we certainly won't solve it by simply raising tax rates. . . Mr. President, the Republican majority in the House of Representatives stands ready to work with you to do what's best for our country. . . Ernst and Young says going over part of the fiscal cliff and raising tax rates on the top two brackets will cost our economy more than 700,000 jobs. Ernst and Young also confirms many of those hit with the rate increase will be small business owners – the very people both parties acknowledge are the key to private sector job creation. 

 

"There is an alternative to going over the fiscal cliff, in whole or in part. It involves making real changes to the financial structure of entitlement programs, and reforming our tax code to curb special-interest loopholes and deductions. By working together and creating a fairer, simpler, cleaner tax code, we can give our country a stronger, healthier economy. A stronger economy means more revenue, which is what the president seeks. . . in order to garner Republican support for new revenues, the president must be willing to reduce spending and shore up the entitlement programs that are the primary drivers of our debt. We aren't seeking to impose our will on the president; we're asking him to make good on his 'balanced' approach. . .

 

"But a 'balanced' approach isn't balanced if it means higher tax rates on the small businesses that are key to getting our economy moving again and keeping it moving. . . A 'balanced' approach isn't balanced if it's done in the old Washington way of raising taxes now, and ultimately failing to cut spending in the future. A 'balanced' approach isn't balanced if it means slashing national defense instead of making the common-sense spending cuts that are truly needed. . .

 

". . .we're willing to accept new revenue, under the right conditions. What matters is where the increased revenue comes from, and what type of reform comes with it. Does the increased revenue come from government taking a larger share of what the American people earn through higher tax rates? Or does it come as the byproduct of a growing economy, energized by a simpler, cleaner, fairer tax code, with fewer loopholes, and lower rates for all?. . . Tax reform, done in the manner I've described, will result in the additional revenue the president seeks. It will support economic growth, which means more revenue is generated for the Treasury. . ."

    Similarly, as WIMS reported yesterday, Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell said the President needs to propose solutions that can pass the Republican controlled House. He said, "Now it's time for the President to propose solutions that actually have a chance of passing the Republican-controlled House of Representatives and a closely-divided Senate, step up to the plate on the challenges of the moment, and deliver in a way that he did not in his first four years in office. To the extent he wants to move to the political center, which is where the work gets done in a divided government, we'll be there to meet him half way. That begins by proposing a way for both parties to work together in avoiding the 'fiscal cliff' without harming a weak and fragile economy, and when that is behind us work with us to reform the tax code and our broken entitlement system. Republicans are eager to hear the President's proposals on these and many other pressing issues going forward and to do the work the people sent us here to do." 

 

   Access the President's Colorado campaign speech (click here). Access the complete statement and video from Speaker Boehner (click here). Access the statement from Sen. McConnell (click here). Access a release from NAM and link to the complete report and a summary (click here). Access more information on the fiscal cliff (click here). [#All]

 

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Obama Wins Electoral & Popular Vote

Nov 6: U.S. voters re-elected President Barack Obama for another 4 year term and candidate Mitt Romney made a gracious concession speech calling for the parties and the American people to come together to deal with the nation's pressing issues. The latest results (still not final) show the President with 303 Electoral votes and 60,044,390 Popular votes; compared to 206 Electoral votes and 57,365,674 Popular votes. Speaking to supporters in his acceptance speech the President said in part:   

"Tonight, more than 200 years after a former colony won the right to determine its own destiny, the task of perfecting our union moves forward. It moves forward because of you. It moves forward because you reaffirmed the spirit that has triumphed over war and depression; the spirit that has lifted this country from the depths of despair to the great heights of hope -- the belief that while each of us will pursue our own individual dreams, we are an American family, and we rise or fall together, as one nation, and as one people.

 

"Tonight, in this election, you, the American people, reminded us that while our road has been hard, while our journey has been long, we have picked ourselves up, we have fought our way back, and we know in our hearts that for the United States of America, the best is yet to come. I want to thank every American who participated in this election. Whether you voted for the very first time or waited in line for a very long time -- by the way, we have to fix that. Whether you pounded the pavement or picked up the phone -- (applause) -- whether you held an Obama sign or a Romney sign, you made your voice heard, and you made a difference. 

 

"I just spoke with Governor Romney, and I congratulated him and Paul Ryan on a hard-fought campaign. . .  In the weeks ahead, I also look forward to sitting down with Governor Romney to talk about where we can work together to move this country forward. . .

 

"As it has for more than two centuries, progress will come in fits and starts.  It's not always a straight line.  It's not always a smooth path.  By itself, the recognition that we have common hopes and dreams won't end all the gridlock, or solve all our problems, or substitute for the painstaking work of building consensus, and making the difficult compromises needed to move this country forward.  But that common bond is where we must begin. . .

 

"But despite all our differences, most of us share certain hopes for America's future.  We want our kids to grow up in a country where they have access to the best schools and the best teachers -- a country that lives up to its legacy as the global leader in technology and discovery and innovation, with all the good jobs and new businesses that follow. We want our children to live in an America that isn't burdened by debt; that isn't weakened by inequality; that isn't threatened by the destructive power of a warming planet. . .

 

"Our economy is recovering.  A decade of war is ending.  A long campaign is now over. And whether I earned your vote or not, I have listened to you.  I have learned from you.  And you've made me a better President.  With your stories and your struggles, I return to the White House more determined and more inspired than ever about the work there is to do, and the future that lies ahead.

  

"Tonight, you voted for action, not politics as usual. You elected us to focus on your jobs, not ours.  And in the coming weeks and months, I am looking forward to reaching out and working with leaders of both parties to meet the challenges we can only solve together:  reducing our deficit;  reforming our tax code; fixing our immigration system; freeing ourselves from foreign oil.  We've got more work to do. . .

 

"And tonight, despite all the hardship we've been through, despite all the frustrations of Washington, I've never been more hopeful about our future. I have never been more hopeful about America.  And I ask you to sustain that hope. I'm not talking about blind optimism -- the kind of hope that just ignores the enormity of the tasks ahead or the roadblocks that stand in our path.  I'm not talking about the wishful idealism that allows us to just sit on the sidelines or shirk from a fight.  I have always believed that hope is that stubborn thing inside us that insists, despite all the evidence to the contrary, that something better awaits us, so long as we have the courage to keep reaching, to keep working, to keep fighting. 

 

"America, I believe we can build on the progress we've made, and continue to fight for new jobs, and new opportunity, and new security for the middle class.  I believe we can keep the promise of our founding -- the idea that if you're willing to work hard, it doesn't matter who you are, or where you come from, or what you look like, or where you love -- it doesn't matter whether you're black or white, or Hispanic or Asian, or Native American, or young or old, or rich or poor, abled, disabled, gay or straight -- you can make it here in America if you're willing to try. 

  

I believe we can seize this future together -- because we are not as divided as our politics suggest; we're not as cynical as the pundits believe; we are greater than the sum of our individual ambitions; and we remain more than a collection of red states and blue states.  We are, and forever will be, the United States of America. And together, with your help, and God's grace, we will continue our journey forward, and remind the world just why it is that we live in the greatest nation on Earth. . ." 

    Access the President's acceptance speech (click here). Access Presidential election results from Politico (click here). [#All]

 

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The Global Garbage Crisis: No Time to Waste

Nov 6: The United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP) indicates that with approximately 1.3 billion tonnes of municipal waste generated each year, and volumes expected to increase to 2.2 billion tonnes by 2025 (according to World Bank figures), urgent action is needed to head off the threat to the environment and human health posed by this global waste crisis. This growing problem was foremost in the minds of delegates who gathered at the biennium conference of the UNEP-hosted Global Partnership on Waste Management (GPWM), held on November 5 and 6 in Osaka, Japan, The conference brought together waste experts from around the world to find answers to the global challenge of waste management and reap the economic and environmental benefits through better coordination.

    UNEP said the threat posed by poor waste management is particularly prominent in low-income countries where waste-collection rates are often below 50 per cent. Piles of garbage along river banks; thick smoke from open burning of mixed, and partly toxic, waste; pungent odors; flies and rodents are an all too familiar scene. Ever-faster population growth, urbanization and economic development are producing increasing quantities of waste that are overburdening existing waste-management systems.

    According to a release, there is no end in sight to this trend: by 2030, the global middle-class will have grown from 2 billion to 4.9 billion, each of these new affluent consumers longing for greater quantities of more sophisticated and resource-intensive goods. Public waste systems in cities cannot keep pace with urban expansion; rapid industrialization is happening in countries that have not yet developed the appropriate systems to deal with hazardous and special wastes; and the growing trade in waste poses significant challenges. Waste management is one of the most complex and cost-intensive public services, absorbing large chunks of municipal budgets even when organized and operated properly.

    Basic human needs such as clean water, clean air and safe food are jeopardized by improper waste management practices, with severe consequences for public health. Poor waste collection can lead to the spread of disease and improper waste disposal - for example, hazardous waste mixed with household waste can be extremely harmful for workers in the waste sector, adjacent communities, and the environment. Besides having serious economic, environmental and health implications, unsound waste management has a social dimension. Like most environmental hazards, deficiencies in waste management disproportionately affect poorer communities as waste is often dumped on land adjacent to slums. Left with the choice between going hungry and waste picking, one per cent of the urban population in developing countries choose to sift through the detritus on dumps and dirty streets.

    Millions of these waste pickers are being exposed to hazardous substances as they try to secure their and their families' survival. Lead, mercury and infectious agents from healthcare facilities -- as well as dioxins and other harmful emissions released during the recovery of valuable materials from e-waste -- not only affect the health of waste pickers, but further contribute to air, land and water contamination.

    As the crisis unfolds, there are significant opportunities for organizing the waste sector, with all its complexities, in a way that is more economically, environmentally and socially sustainable. Matthew Gubb, Director of the UNEP's International Environmental Technology Centre (IETC), recognizes both risks and opportunities inherent in the waste sector and highlights it as "a model area for greening the economy." UNEP indicates that if handled properly, waste management has huge potential to turn problems into solutions and to "lead the way towards sustainable development" through the recovery and reuse of valuable resources; the creation of new business and employment opportunities, including for the informal sector; reduced emissions of greenhouse gases from waste management operations, such as landfills; and conversion of waste to energy.

    Access a release from UNEP (click here). Access more information on the Global Partnership on Waste Management (click here). Access the background papers from the conference (click here). [#Solid, #Haz, #P2]

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PwC Index Indicates Near Impossible Task Toward Decarbonization

Nov 4: PricewaterhouseCoopers LLP (PwC) has released its annual Low Carbon Economy Index which they say centers on one core statistic: the rate of change of global carbon intensity. This year PwC estimated that the required improvement in global carbon intensity to meet a  2°C warming target has risen to 5.1% a year, from now to 2050. They indicate that the world has passed a critical threshold -- not once since World War Two has the world achieved that rate of decarbonization in a single year, but the task now confronting us is to achieve it for 39 consecutive years.

    According to PwC the 2011 rate of improvement in carbon intensity was 0.8%. Even doubling the rate of decarbonization, would still lead to emissions consistent with six degrees of warming. To give ourselves a more than 50% chance of avoiding two degrees will require a six-fold improvement in our rate of decarbonization.

    The 2011 "rate of improvement" in carbon intensity was 0.7%, giving an average rate of decarbonization of 0.8% a year since 2000. If the world continues to decarbonize at the rate since the turn of the millennium, there will be an emissions gap of approximately 12 GtCO2 by 2020, 30GtCO2 by 2030 and nearly 70GtCO2 by 2050, as compared to our 2-degree scenario.

    the report indicates that, "In the emerging markets, where the E7 are now emitting more than the G7, improvements in carbon intensity have largely stalled, with strong GDP growth closely coupled with rapid emissions growth. Meanwhile the policy context for carbon capture and storage (CCS) and nuclear, critical technologies for low carbon energy generation, remains uncertain. Government support for renewable energy technologies is also being scaled back. As negotiators convene every year to attempt to agree a global deal, carbon emissions continue to rise in most parts of the world. Business leaders have been asking for clarity in political ambition on climate change. Now one thing is clear: businesses, governments and communities across the world need to plan for a warming world -- not just 2°C, but 4°C, or even 6°C.

    The 2°C target was formally agreed at COP-15 at Copenhagen 2009, and is based on a carbon budget that would stabilize atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations at 450 ppm which would give a 50% probability of limiting warming to 2°C. Governments have since agreed to launch a review in 2013 to consider strengthening the long-term goal to 1.5°C.

    The report indicates that, "Governments' ambitions to limit warning to 2°C now appear highly unrealistic. This new reality means that we must contemplate a much more challenging future. While the negotiators continue to focus on 2°C, a growing number of scientists and other expert organizations are now projecting much more pessimistic scenarios for global temperatures. The International Energy Agency, for example, now considers 4°C and 6°C scenarios as well as 2°C in their latest analysis.

    In the period leading up to the Copenhagen UN summit on climate change in 2009, major economies came forward and pledged carbon reduction targets for 2020. Analyses of those pledges suggest that they are collectively insufficient to meet a 2°C target. Even more worryingly, with eight years to go, it is questionable whether several of these pledges can be met.

    PwC discusses what it calls "The shale gas dilemma" saying, "The boom of shale gas in the United States that has helped pushed down emissions there has sparked a debate on the use of gas as a transition fuel to a low carbon economy. The development and widespread deployment of fracking technology in the US has lowered the price of natural gas and resulted in a fall in greenhouse gas emissions as it displaces coal in power generation (although some analysts have raised questions around the lifecycle emissions of shale gas). Despite concerns about the possible environmental impacts of fracking, a world-wide hunt for unconventional gas reserves had already begun – China, India, Canada, Mexico, Australia, Russia and Saudi Arabia are all known to have significant reserves.

    "Gas may buy some time much needed by the global climate system and help limit emissions growth – displacing coal with gas in power generation roughly halves carbon emissions. But low gas prices may also reduce the incentive for investment in lower-carbon nuclear power and renewable energy. Large scale renewables and low carbon technology such as CCS and nuclear will require significant amounts of political will, finance and time. Our analysis suggests that at current rates of consumption, replacing 10% of global oil and coal consumption with gas could deliver a savings of around 1 GtCO2e per year, or 3% of global energy emissions."

    Looking toward the upcoming UNFCCC 18th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP18) meeting, November 26 to December 7, 2012, at the Qatar National Convention Centre in Doha, Qatar, PwC indicates, "Regardless of the outcomes at the UN climate change summit in Doha this year, one thing is clear. Governments and businesses can no longer assume that a 2°C warming world is the default scenario. Any investment in long-term assets or infrastructure, particularly in coastal or low-lying regions, needs to address more pessimistic scenarios. Sectors dependent on food, water, energy or ecosystem services need to scrutinize the resilience and viability of their supply chains. More carbon intensive sectors need to anticipate more invasive regulation and the possibility of stranded assets. And governments' support for vulnerable communities needs to consider more drastic actions.

    "The only way to avoid the pessimistic scenarios will be radical transformations in the ways the global economy currently functions: rapid uptake of renewable energy, sharp falls in fossil fuel use or massive deployment of CCS, removal of industrial emissions and halting deforestation. This suggests a need for much more ambition and urgency on climate policy, at both the national and international level. Either way, business-as-usual is not an option."

    Access an overview and video discussion of the report (click here). Access the complete 16-page report (click here). Access the UNFCCC website for extensive information on the upcoming COP18 meeting (click here). [#Climate]

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Rep. Fattah Introduces Bill For $12 Billion In Sandy Assistance

Nov 2: Representative Chaka Fattah (D-PA) introduced legislation for $12 billion in emergency disaster relief funds -- with no budget offsets -- to provide the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and other agencies with resources related to national recovery from Hurricane Sandy. "The Hurricane Sandy Recovery and Rebuilding Supplemental Appropriations Act" directs $6.7 billion for FEMA's Disaster Relief Fund and sets aside $5 billion for FEMA to provide direct loans to state and local governments in a Disaster Assistance Direct Loan Program Account. These funds would help to compensate for tax revenue lost due to the storm and its aftermath. The latest estimates of total damage from Sandy are $60 billion.

    In addition, the bill directs $45 million to the Army Corps of Engineers Flood Control and Coastal Emergencies Account and $255 million for the Small Business Administration's disaster loans program. Rep. Fattah said, "Leaders at all levels -- from President Obama to governors, mayors and first responders -- demonstrated the value of being prepared before this cataclysmic storm. We in Congress must take the same pro-active approach to providing resources for recovery. FEMA may have enough on reserve to start the process of recovery. But it's evident from scale of destruction that this will be a costly, perhaps unprecedented recovery across as many as two dozen states. New York State alone is requesting $6 billion in federal aid. It is critical that cash-strapped state and local governments everywhere know that their needs will be met."

    Fattah is a senior Appropriator who serves as Ranking Member on the House Appropriations Committee's Subcommittee on Commerce, Justice, Science and related agencies. His Philadelphia based district was one of many in the East and Midwest that have experienced major impacts from Sandy's devastation. He said, "The American people impacted by Sandy have a right to a full, smart, bipartisan recovery support effort from Washington. We cannot accomplish this on the cheap. The President has pledged to state and local officials and to individuals in Sandy's path that we will provide every resource for recovery. It's time for Congress to step up."

    Rep. Fattah introduced the emergency funding bill during the brief, pro-forma session of the House on Friday. He called for full debate and quick enactment when Congress returns in regular session on November 13. In a release he noted that while routine appropriations require offsetting budget cuts under Congressional pay-go rules, he indicated there is ample precedent for emergency spending without offsets. He said, "We have always provided funding for emergencies without cutting the budget elsewhere, and the pay-go rules of the House provide for these exceptions. Clearly, with major population and commercial centers hobbled, Sandy meets the emergency test. We have a responsibility to ensure that FEMA doesn't run out of money part way through the job."

    This week's BloombergBusinessweek cover story is entitled, "It's Global Warming, Stupid." In opening remarks, the article states: "In an Oct. 30 blog post, Mark Fischetti of Scientific American took a spin through Ph.D.-land and found more and more credentialed experts willing to shrug off the climate caveats. The broadening consensus: 'Climate change amps up other basic factors that contribute to big storms. For example, the oceans have warmed, providing more energy for storms. And the Earth's atmosphere has warmed, so it retains more moisture, which is drawn into storms and is then dumped on us.' Even those of us who are science-phobic can get the gist of that. . ."

    Access a release from Rep. Fattah (click here). Access the Businessweek issue with many links and further details (click here). [#Climate]

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